[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 190830
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 19 2006

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 085/24. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. GORDON IS NORTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PASSING BY GORDON TO THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING 55W
LONGITUDE SHOULD ENSURE THAT GORDON WILL MAINTAIN ITS RAPID
EASTERLY MOTION. GORDON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AZORES ISLANDS IN 18-24 HOURS...AND THEN AFTERWARD ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN IBERIAN PENINSULA AS A
SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND 90 KT FROM SAB
AND AFWA. THE EYE HAS REMAINED NEARLY CLOUD-FREE AND DISTINCT
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...SO THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 90
KT. GORDON'S FAST FORWARD SPEED IS MINIMIZING ANY ADVERSE EFFECTS
FROM THE 40-50 KT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ENCROACHING ON THE CYCLONE FROM
THE WEST...SO THE ONLY FACTORS INHIBITING INTENSIFICATION WOULD BE
COOLER SSTS OF 22C-23C AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY FAST FORWARD SPEED...DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO INDUCE ANY RAPID WEAKENING
BEFORE GORDON REACHES THE AZORES ISLANDS. THEREFORE...GORDON IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AZORES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GFDL AND
SHIPS INTENSITY MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      19/0900Z 38.1N  38.7W    90 KT
 12HR VT     19/1800Z 38.3N  33.6W    75 KT...APPROACHING AZORES
 24HR VT     20/0600Z 38.8N  26.1W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     20/1800Z 40.8N  17.9W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     21/0600Z 43.6N   8.8W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     22/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



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