[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 152042
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006

DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF GORDON AND A RAGGED EYE FEATURE HAS
BECOME EVIDENT IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.  DESPITE THE
CURRENT APPEARANCE...DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE LOWERED A BIT FROM THIS
MORNING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 80 KT.
GORDON IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ENCOUNTERING COOLER WATERS
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWING THE SHIPS AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS.  THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT DAYS 3 AND 4 AS
GORDON BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.

GORDON HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS OR
SO...EMBEDDED IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.  THE GFS...GFDL...AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS FURTHER TO
THE NORTH AND WEST AND MUCH SLOWER FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS DURING
THE FIRST 48 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK STEERING FLOW.  A DEEP-
LAYER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
ONCE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH REACHES GORDON...IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH.  BY DAY 5...GORDON IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED INTO A
LARGE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      15/2100Z 31.1N  53.5W    80 KT
 12HR VT     16/0600Z 31.7N  53.4W    70 KT
 24HR VT     16/1800Z 32.6N  52.7W    60 KT
 36HR VT     17/0600Z 33.6N  52.0W    55 KT
 48HR VT     17/1800Z 35.5N  50.5W    55 KT
 72HR VT     18/1800Z 41.0N  41.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     19/1800Z 43.0N  26.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN

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