[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 142356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON AT 14/2100 UTC IS NEAR 30.2N
54.9W. GORDON IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. GORDON HAS A WELL DEFINED 15 NM DIAMETER EYE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 52W-56W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE AT 14/2100 UTC IS NEAR 14.2N
37.6W. HELENE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE
CENTER FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 37W-40W.  PATCHES OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER FROM
12N-19N BETWEEN 29W-35W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING
WEST 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURGE OF
DUST AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. CONVECTION IS CONFINED
TO THE ITCZ WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-12N
BETWEEN 55W-60W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W SOUTH OF 18N
JUST WEST OF PUERTO RICO. IT IS MOVING WEST AT 15 KT.  PATCHES
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 62W-67W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST WEST OF JAMAICA ALONG 78W
SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS N OF PANAMA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 76W-81W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 13N17W 15N25W 14N37W 9N44W 8N50W 10N60W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM
13N-16N BETWEEN 17W-20W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 23W-26W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-8N BETWEEN 43W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO S TEXAS ALONG
29N80W 27N85W 27N97W.  WINDS ARE 5-10 KT ON BOTH SIDES OF THE
FRONT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 78W-82W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90
NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE E GULF OF
MEXICO N OF 20N...BETWEEN 70W-90W.  RIDGE AXIS IS FROM S FLORIDA
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 26N80W 20N90W.  ANOTHER RIDGE IS
OVER N MEXICO AND THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 94W.  EXPECT THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO REMAIN OVER FLORIDA AND THE N GULF WITH
CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE TRAVERSING THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SEE
ABOVE.  AN ITCZ ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO PANAMA
ALONG 10N60W 11N70W 9N84W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 63W-74W...AND IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 80W-86W.  ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
REMAINS OVER INLAND CUBA BETWEEN 76W-84W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA NEAR
18N78W.  NELY FLOW IS W OF 78W...WHILE SWLY FLOW IS BETWEEN
70W-78W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
22N57W PRODUCING SELY FLOW OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 70W.
EXPECT...THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N72W 28N73W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 68W-71W.
HURRICANE GORDON IS FURTHER E MOVING NE...SEE ABOVE.  A DOMINATE
1026 MB HIGH IS S OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N28W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W.  GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW IS OVER HURRICANE GORDON.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 35W-45W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE
E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 35W.  T.S. HELENE ALSO HAS GOOD
UPPER LEVEL OUT FLOW.

$$
FORMOSA




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