[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 140009
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED SEP 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON AT 13/2100 UTC IS NEAR
27.0N 57.5W. GORDON IS MOVING NORTH 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.  GORDON HAS A 20 NM DIAMETER EYE.  CONVECTION IS
CONFINED TO AROUND THE CENTER.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 54W-60W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT AT 13/2100 UTC IS NEAR
12.7N 30.7W. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST AT 16 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT3/WTNT33
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A STRONG BAND IS W AND N OF THE CENTER.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE 15N31W 14N33W 11N33W.  A BAND S OF THE CENTER
HAS SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-9N
BETWEEN 31W-34W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N
BETWEEN 43W-47W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 51W-54W.

AN E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS WELL-DEFINED IN THE LOW
CLOUD FIELD ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS IN PATCHES FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 57W-63W.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED S OF
20N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM
18N-20N BETWEEN 71W-72W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 72W-75W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 16N16W 12N30W 8N40W 8N50W 12N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 12W-18W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
31N85W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO S TEXAS ALONG 28N90W
26N97W.  WINDS ARE 5-10 KT ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N FLORIDA FROM 30N-31N
BETWEEN 83W-85W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 81W-84W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN
84W-98W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES
FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
WATERS...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...INTO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N96W.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DIP TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE TRAVERSING THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SEE
ABOVE.  AN ITCZ ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO PANAMA
ALONG 12N60W 9N80W.  PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ TO INCLUDE N VENEZUELA... N
COLOMBIA... AND PANAMA.  SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER CUBA...
AND INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 86W-93W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA
NEAR 18N72W.  NLY FLOW IS W OF 77W...WHILE SLY FLOW IS E OF
70W.  EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1011 MB LOW IS E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N73W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 69W-72W.  HURRICANE
GORDON IS FURTHER E MOVING N...SEE ABOVE.  A DOMINATE 1027 MB
HIGH IS SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N33W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W.  A TROUGH IS BETWEEN
60W-70W.  GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS OVER HURRICANE GORDON.  AN
UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N44W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 40W-50W.  AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
27N30W.  T.D. EIGHT ALSO HAS FAIRLY GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUT
FLOW.

$$
FORMOSA




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