[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121820
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MON 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE AT 12/1500 UTC IS NEAR
38.2N 61.2W. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 620 NM/1155 KM
SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. HURRICANE FLORENCE IS
MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KT. SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF FLORENCE
IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND DURING\
THE NEXT DAY OR FOLLOWING THIS TRACK. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS FLORENCE TRANSITIONS
INTO A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. RESIDENTS IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA SHOULD CONSULT
BULLETINS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR STORM INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS FLORENCE TRANSITIONS INTO A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 NM/110 KM FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 360 NM/665 KM. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 38N TO 41N BETWEEN 61W AND 63W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON AT 12/1500 UTC IS NEAR
23.4N 58.3W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 425 NM/790 KM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IT IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST
8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER FROM
22N TO 24N. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 26N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT AT 12/1500 UTC IS NEAR
12.5N 23.0W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 160 NM/295 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
IT IS MOVING WEST 16 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1007 MB. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 240 NM TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER FROM
11N TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N...AND TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE CENTER FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 19W AND 21W. OTHER
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N22W 9N24W 7N28W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ANY FORM OF PRECIPITATION IS IN
THE ITCZ AT THIS MOMENT.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS...SOME WEAKENING...
FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 41W AND 50W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TO THE
WEST...AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN BECOMES ITS OWN ENTITY.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 9N25W 7N35W 7N38W 7N46W 8N49W 9N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 14N BETWEEN 36W
AND 50W...FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W...AND FROM 10N TO
15N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
7N TO 9N BETWEEN 57W AND 58W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS AT A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
27N103W IN INTERIOR MEXICO. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST...TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA
ALONG 30N...TO 28N75W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
GULF WATERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF 26N82W 25N90W 22N98W. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 20N92W TO AN INTERIOR MEXICO LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 19N100W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NEAR 23N63W OVER THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE NORTHERN COASTS OF
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. A DIFFERENT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS MOVING ACROSS COSTA RICA AND SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS NORTH OF 14N WEST OF 77W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SOUTHERN END OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENDS NEAR
30N64W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 30N
AND WEST OF THE 32N59W TO 23N63W TO MONA PASSAGE TROUGH.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N41W.
A TROUGH GOES FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO 22N46W TO 15N49W
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM 17N29W TO 23N29W BEYOND
31N29W.

$$
MT


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