[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 121450
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006

FLORENCE APPEARS TO BE WELL INTO ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BECOMING CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...ALONG THE PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN CANADA.  AS FLORENCE INTERACTS
WITH THIS FRONT...MOVES OVER COOLER WATER...AND CONTINUES TO DRAW
IN STABLE AIR...IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 12
HOURS.

DESPITE THE LESS IMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0902 UTC...DETECTED SOME HURRICANE-
FORCE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PASS. BASED ON THIS...THE
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  DUE TO INTERACTIONS
WITH A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA...AND THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC
SOURCE OF ENERGY...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED AS
FLORENCE PASSES JUST SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

FLORENCE IS MOVING JUST A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK WITH AN ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 035/16. TRACK
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

LARGE NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG MOST OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES AND THE BAHAMAS FOR ANOTHER FEW DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      12/1500Z 38.2N  61.2W    65 KT
 12HR VT     13/0000Z 40.6N  58.7W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     13/1200Z 43.9N  55.1W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     14/0000Z 46.5N  50.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     14/1200Z 47.8N  44.6W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     15/1200Z 49.5N  30.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     16/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
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