[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 112203 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MON 11 2006

CORRECTED FOR DATE

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE AT 11/1800 UTC IS NEAR
33.6N 65.3W. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 80 NM/145 KM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA. HURRICANE FLORENCE IS MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEAST 11 KT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE CENTER OF FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA
LATER TODAY. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 80 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 100 KT. FLORENCE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.  AN ELEVATED OBSERVING SITE IN BERMUDA
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 111 MPH/179 KM/HR. HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 NM/110 KM FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
250 NM/465 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB.
STORM SURGE VALUES OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE LIKELY ALONG THE
COAST OF BERMUDA TODAY.  THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SUBSIDING TONIGHT. LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING STRONG RIP CURRENTS...ARE AFFECTING THE
BAHAMAS AND SECTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. PLEASE READ STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 32N TO 34N BETWEEN 64W AND 66W. CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -72C TO -79C WERE FROM 31N TO 35N
BETWEEN 64W AND 68W AT 11/1215 UTC. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
IN THE AREA FROM 31N TO 35N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W ONLY RANGE FROM
-60C TO -65C...EXCEPT FOR THE PART OF THE STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE TO FIND SOME FORM OF STRONG
PRECIPITATION FOR ANOTHER 200 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF
THIS SYSTEM.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN AT 11/1500 UTC IS NEAR
21.1N 56.7W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 380 NM/700 KM NORTHEAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IT IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 8 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE DEPRESSION MAY BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TODAY. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO
27N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W.

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N14W IN SOUTHERN SENEGAL
IN THE PART OF THE COUNTRY BETWEEN GAMBIA AND GUINEA-BISSAU.
IT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE COLDER CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE SCENARIO
WAS MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE 4 TO 5 HOURS AGO. TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED...BUT PRECIPITATION PROBABLY REMAINS STILL...FROM 9N TO
16N BETWEEN 12W AND 21W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ANY FORM OF PRECIPITATION IS IN
THE ITCZ AT THIS MOMENT.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W SOUTH OF 13N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ANY FORM OF PRECIPITATION IS IN THE
ITCZ AT THIS MOMENT FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TO
THE WEST...AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN BECOMES ITS OWN ENTITY.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
ITCZ FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96W/97W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE. A FEW CELLS
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 95W AND 96W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A WEST-CENTRAL YUCATAN
PENINSULA LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN
INTERIOR MEXICO JUST WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS UNDERCUTTING UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 11N14W 8N24W 8N28W 8N32W 9N41W 10N45W 9N55W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 10N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W...FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN AND 45W...FROM
10N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS AT A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
27N103W IN INTERIOR MEXICO. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST...TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA
ALONG 30N...TO 28N75W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
GULF WATERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF 26N82W 25N90W 22N98W. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A WEST-CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA
LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN INTERIOR MEXICO
JUST WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW MOVES ALONG 30N BETWEEN 80W AND 100W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF
23N WEST OF 87W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN
FLORIDA AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ARE IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW...AND UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THE EASTERN END
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SITUATED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE FLOW AROUND HURRICANE FLORENCE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER. BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
INCLUDING EXTREME NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA/PANAMA/COSTA RICA/
SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 73W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS
ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 73W AND 83W. CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER AROUND THE WEST-CENTRAL
YUCATAN PENINSULA LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SOME OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ALONG 30N AND
EXITING FLORIDA CURVES TOWARD A TROUGH BASE...AND IMPARTS UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON HURRICANE FLORENCE. THE REST OF THE
FLOW CURVES TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EVENTUAL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.
THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 70W AND FLORIDA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
CENTER HAS FORMED/IS FORMING NEAR 24N62W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
28N38W TO 27N49W AND 28N56W. ANOTHER TROUGH GOES FROM THE 28N38W
LOW CENTER TO 20N42W AND 14N50W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL WAVES
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 15N22W JUST EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
MT


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