[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101902 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 10 2006

CORRECTION FOR WESTERLY WIND FLOW ALONG 30N INSTEAD OF
EASTERLY FLOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE IS 29.2N 66.1W AT 10/1800 UTC
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST 11 KT. THIS POSITION IS ALSO
195 NM/365 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ALREADY ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT BERMUDA. A WIND GUST
TO 46 MPH RECENTLY WAS REPORTED AT THE COMMISSIONER'S POINT
AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION ON BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. THE CENTER OF FLORENCE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS VERY NEAR BERMUDA ON MONDAY MORNING. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
FLORENCE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...AND FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A CATEGORY
TWO HURRICANE AS IT PASSES BERMUDA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 40 NM/75 KM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 225 NM/415 KM. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB. 8.82 INCHES. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W...
AND FROM 31N TO 34N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW AROUND FLORENCE GOES FROM 20N TO 35N
BETWEEN 60W AND 74W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. NO LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 26W
AND 29W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 38W AND 44W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 1KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO
21N BETWEEN 52W AND 56W. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 21N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN 50W AND 57W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W/92W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 9N13W 7N23W 9N38W 8N42W 5N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE WEAKENING FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 38W...AS UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 44W
AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS AT A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
24N101W IN INTERIOR MEXICO. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST...TO COASTAL LOUISIANA...TO NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA
AND BEYOND 31N77W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
GULF WATERS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS OVER THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS JUST EAST OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE AND JUST NORTHEAST
OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
MOVES ALONG 30N BETWEEN 80W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF
25N IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 16N65W IN THE
EASTERN SECTOR OF THE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS
BEING PUSHED FROM EAST TO WEST...REACHING 78W. SOME UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS SOUTHEAST OF 19N63W 13N70W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
INVERTED TROUGH RUNS FROM THE COAST OF CENTRAL PANAMA NORTHWARD
TO THE WATERS JUST EAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. PRECIPITATION
THAT WAS IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH
OF 16N WEST OF 77W HAS BEEN DISSIPATING STEADILY WITH TIME.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS WEST OF THE
27N35W LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AND NORTH OF THE 21N53W SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE 53W TROPICAL WAVE. THIS FLOW
PATTERN CONTINUES TO 32N59W...WHICH IS TO THE NORTHEAST OF
HURRICANE FLORENCE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 27N35W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N33W 25N37W 23N40W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 480 NM OF THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
AFRICA FROM 18N TO 32N BETWEEN 4W AND 23W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
MT


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