[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101048
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE FLORENCE IS CENTERED NEAR 27.7N 65.7W AT 10/0900 UTC
OR ABOUT 280 NM S OF BERMUDA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 13 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. FLORENCE HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER NIGHT
WITH THE CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS OF 28N66.5W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA FROM 25N-33N BETWEEN 64W-70W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W WITH AN 1011 MB LOW SE OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE LOW
CONTINUES TO LOSE DEFINITION WHILE THE WAVE AXIS REMAINS
WELL-DEFINED. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR AND AFRICAN DUST
WITH ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ.

THE 1012 MB LOW THAT WAS CENTERED NEAR 9N45W IS NO LONGER
DISCERNIBLE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W S OF 25N WITH A 1014 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 21N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS WELL-DEFINED
WITH THE LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 90/120 NM
RADIUS OF 19.5N52.5W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 53W-59W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND
AND IN THE E PACIFIC REGION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N11W 6N22W 8N35W 12N50W OVER N
VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA NEAR 9N61W THEN S OF PANAMA INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 21W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT E INTO THE NW ATLC
AND JUST CLIPS THE NE PORTION OF FLORIDA. HOWEVER...THE
ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES THROUGH THE
GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA JUST N OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE MEANDERING TO 28N90W AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER MEXICO CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ACROSS THE N GULF N OF LINE FROM TAMPA FLORIDA ALONG 26N90W
TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE COAST OF MEXICO AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS RATHER QUITE THIS
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE COVERS THE MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. THE INVERTED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT
WESTWARD AND EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA/PANAMA TO A SMALL UPPER LOW
IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N84W. THIS TROUGH/LOW IS GENERATING A
BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 75W WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM
OF 14N FROM 77W-TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE TO POP UP /THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH AND
CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE SURROUNDING
HURRICANE FLORENCE WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN
REMAINS DRY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE FAR E US AND NW ATLC IS NOW N
OF 30N W OF 75W WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N73W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA JUST N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN
WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE E US COAST N OF 30N. WEAKENING NARROW
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NEAR 28N76W. THE
UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE IS BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD AND
NOW COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 400 NM OF 65W N OF 21N AND WITHIN
500/600 NM OF THE RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 21N65W S INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLC TO NEAR 10N60W INCLUDING THE E CARIBBEAN. BROAD
UPPER TROUGH IS E OF FLORENCE COVERING THE ATLC N OF 16N FROM
26W-55W WITH EMBEDDED UPPER LOWS CENTERED NEAR 27N34W AND A
WEAKER ONE NEAR 25N55W ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF FLORENCE. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FAR E
ATLC COVERS THE AREA E OF 26W. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE THE E ATLC E OF FLORENCE WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
BENEATH THE STRONGER UPPER LOW EXTENDING ALONG 31N32W-24N34W.

$$
WALLACE






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