[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100647 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN SEP 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

...CORRECTION FOR HURRICANE FLORENCE PRESSURE...

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS UPGRADED TO HURRICANE AT 10/0600
UTC. HURRICANE FLORENCE IS CENTERED NEAR 27.1N 65.2W AT 10/0600
UTC OR ABOUT 315 NM S OF BERMUDA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 11
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. FLORENCE HAS FINALLY
INTENSIFIED TO HURRICANE. MODELS INDICATE A MORE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER 36
HOURS FLORENCE WILL MOVE INTO AN AREA OF INCREASE SHEAR. THE
CENTER OF FLORENCE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A VERY LARGE AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 45/60 NM
RADIUS OF 27.5N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 63W-68.5W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED ALONG 24W/25W WITH THE ASSOCIATED
1013 MB LOW S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 14N MOVING W NEAR
10 KT. THE LOW HAS WEAKEN AND ELONGATED INTO THE FORM OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE. SMALL AREA SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 24W-26W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVE THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR AND AFRICAN DUST
WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ.

A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 9N45W DRIFTING WESTWARD. THIS IS
A WEAK CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS WITH NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 25N WITH A 1014 MB LOW ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 22N MOVING W 5-10 KT. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE
POSSIBILITY OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM BUT
WILL WILL SLOW IN THAT DEVELOPMENT. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN
44W-52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SW OF
THE LOW WITHIN A 60/75 NM RADIUS OF 20N52W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 48W-53W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W/89W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND
AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF HONDURAS W OF 86W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N15W 10N27W 9N40W 11N57W OVER N
VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA AND PANAMA THEN ALONG 11N79W INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION NEAR 10N84W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 55N-12N BETWEEN 25W-35W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 35W-43W AND FROM 8N-13N FROM 51W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE RELAXED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT E INTO THE NW
ATLC AND JUST CLIPS THE NE PORTION OF FLORIDA. HOWEVER...THE
ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES THROUGH THE
GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA JUST N OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE MEANDERING TO 28N94W AND IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER MEXICO CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ACROSS THE N GULF N OF 25N. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
RATHER QUITE TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE COVERS THE MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN E OF 73W. THE INVERTED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT
WESTWARD AND EXTENDS FROM OVER COLOMBIA OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
TO A SMALL UPPER LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N84W. THIS
TROUGH/LOW IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN N OF 13N W OF 77W. WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF
MARTINIQUE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE SURROUNDING TROPICAL
STORM FLORENCE WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN REMAINS
DRY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE RELAX DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE FAR E US AND NW ATLC IS
NOW N OF 30N W OF 76W WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N73W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA JUST N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN
W OF 80W. A WEAKENING NARROW INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL CUBA TO NEAR 29N74W. THE UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH
FLORENCE HAS MOVED WESTWARD AND NOW COVERS THE AREA WITHIN
500/600 NM OF RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 10N57W NW TO FLORENCE THEN N TO BEYOND 32N60W INCLUDING THE
E CARIBBEAN. BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS E OF FLORENCE COVERING THE
ATLC N OF 18N FROM 26W-55W WITH EMBEDDED UPPER LOWS CENTERED
NEAR 26N33W AND A WEAKER ONE NEAR 23N52W. THIS IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE E OF FLORENCE.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FAR E ATLC COVERS THE AREA E OF 26W. AT THE
SURFACE...RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE E ATLC E OF FLORENCE.

$$
WALLACE



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net