[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091825
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT SEP 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE IS CENTERED NEAR 25.1N 64.0W AT 09/1800
UTC MOVING NORTHWEST AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
FLORENCE REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE...WARM
WATERS...AND LOW SHEAR AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THE CENTER OF FLORENCE IS NOW NEAR THE MIDDLE OF
THE DEEPEST CONVECTION.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 60W-67W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A 1012 MB LOW IS S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 13N23W MOVING
W NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 22W-27W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS IS A
LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR AND AFRICAN DUST WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 6N-10N
BETWEEN 31W-41W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 24N WITH A 1013 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 22N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 48W-52W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG
86W/87W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
CONVECTION IS NOW CONFINED TO NEAR THE ITCZ.  CLUSTERS OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 79W-89W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO ALONG 95W
MOVING W AT 10 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
17N-19N BETWEEN 94W-96W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N15W 9N30W 8N50W 12N65W.  BESIDES
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 44W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE TEXAS COAST
ALONG 29N80W 29N95W.  PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 83W-96W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN
93W-98W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO
NEAR 24N100W.  NW FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 23N.  EXPECT THE
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY N AND PERSIST FOR
ANOTHER 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA...SEE ABOVE.  AN ITCZ EXTENDS FROM TRINIDAD TO PANAMA
ALONG 11N-9N WITH CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NE OF THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 25N72W PRODUCING MUCH LESS SHEAR OVER T.S. FLORENCE
THAN YESTERDAY...AND PRODUCING NW FLOW OVER HISPANIOLA.  AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS NOW CENTERED OVER T.S. FLORENCE AND IS
PRODUCING SE FLOE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 13N.  EXPECT THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH CONVECTION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N73W 29N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 76W-79W.
A DOMINATE 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
34N47W.  T.S.FLORENCE IS FORECAST TO GO AROUND ITS WESTERN
PERIPHERY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NE OF THE BAHAMAS IS WEAKENING
ALLOWING FLORENCE TO STRENGTHEN.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER
FLORENCE IS NOW PRODUCING A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N32W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 25W-45W.

$$
FORMOSA




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