[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT SEP 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE IS CENTERED NEAR 23.8N 62.3W AT 09/0600
UTC MOVING NORTHWEST AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
FLORENCE HAS ENTERED AN ENVIRONMENT OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE...WARM
WATERS...AND LOW SHEAR...THUS HAS STARTED TO INTENSIFY. THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE CENTER OF FLORENCE
IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION...ANOTHER INDICATION
OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60
NM OF 62W FROM 23N-26N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN
59W-65W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A 1011 MB LOW IS JUST E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N21W
MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS MOVING N AWAY FROM THE LOW WITHIN A 60/75 NM
RADIUS OF 18.5N21W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVE THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR AND AFRICAN DUST
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 7N10N
BETWEEN 32W-35W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 25N WITH A 1013 MB LOW ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 22N MOVING W 10 KT. THIS WAVE HAS DETACHED ITSELF FROM
THE INFLUENCE OF FLORENCE AND NOW HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-22N
BETWEEN 45W-50W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 84W S OF 22N MOVING W
15 KT. WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS MOVING OVER PORTION OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-25N BETWEEN 82W-87W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N21W 10N31W 8N40W 9N53W BECOMING
DISTORTED BY TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE THEN ALONG 13N62W ACROSS
THE S CARIBBEAN AND N VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA ALONG 10N74W INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION NEAR 11N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 21W-25W AND FROM 7N-10N
BETWEEN 42W-46W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION DOT THE AREA
FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 20W-53W AND OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM
15N-20N E OF 19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS SHIFTING E OVER THE FAR E US AND THE E
GULF N OF 25N E OF 86W WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE NW ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA BETWEEN
JACKSONVILLE AND DAYTONA BEACH TO NEAR 28N86W IN THE NE GULF.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OVER THE E GULF E OF 87W AND OVER THE FAR NW GULF N OF 27N W
OF 92W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS QUITE TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH
IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W. AN UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED
WITH FLORENCE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 67W. AN INVERTED
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGES EXTENDING FROM NW
VENEZUELA/NE COLOMBIA N TO THE MONA PASSAGE. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 20N TO OVER CUBA
BETWEEN 77W-81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED DOT THE CARIBBEAN W
OF 70W WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES N OF MARTINIQUE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE
SURROUNDING TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE E
CARIBBEAN REMAINS DRY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE FAR E US EXTENDS INTO THE W
ATLC N OF 26N W OF 75W WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N76W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN
JACKSONVILLE AND DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA  FROM 26N W OF 79W. NARROW
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CUBA N TO NEAR 30N75W. AN UPPER LOW IS
N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 22N72W AND CONTINUES TO PRECEDE FLORENCE IN
ITS WESTWARD MOTION AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE COAST OF CUBA
BETWEEN 74W-77W. THE UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE COVERS
THE AREA FROM 50W-66W INCLUDING THE E CARIBBEAN. BROAD UPPER
TROUGH IS E OF FLORENCE COVERING THE ATLC N OF 18N FROM 25W-50W
WITH EMBEDDED UPPER LOWS CENTERED NEAR 27N31W AND 29N46W. THIS
IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE E OF
FLORENCE. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FAR E ATLC COVERS THE AREA E OF
25W AND DISPLACING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
LOW. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE E ATLC E
OF FLORENCE AND APPEARS TO BE RETREATING NORTHWARD.

$$
WALLACE




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