[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081038
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE IS CENTERED NEAR 22.1N 57.6W AT 08/0900
UTC MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
FLORENCE REMAINS A VERY BROAD ELONGATED SYSTEM AND REMAINS
POORLY ORGANIZED AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. CONVECTION IS NOW
MAINLY TO THE NW OF THE CENTER WITH LITTLE OR NO SHEAR. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE
24N57W-22N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN
50W-62W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVE THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR AND AFRICAN DUST
WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
CONTINUES TO BE ENTRAINED INTO TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE WAVE
AXIS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE 19N41W-21N47W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 79W S OF 21N MOVING W
15 KT. LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 89W S OF 20N MOVING W
10-15 KT. WAVE IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...THUS WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY. ANY
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS INLAND AND IN THE E PACIFIC REGION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N16W 8N27W 7N37W 10N44W BECOMING
DISTORTED BY TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE THEN ALONG 12N62W ACROSS N
PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN
17W-22W AND FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 34W-39W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 41W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERING THE E HALF OF THE US EXTENDS OVER
MUCH OF THE GULF WITH THE ASSOCIATED NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE NW ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA NEAR
30N84W TO NEAR 22N94W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE
CARIBBEAN COVERS THE FAR S GULF GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST IN THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER THE NE GULF N OF 26N E
OF 88W TO OVER FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DRY THIS
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN
UPPER HIGH APPROACHING THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 18N84W AND
EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN
THE S GULF OF MEXICO. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
N/CENTRAL VENEZUELA OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TO THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN
ISLANDS IN RESPONSE TO THE BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE W TROPICAL
ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE N/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN JUST S OF THE GREATER ANTILLES WITHIN 90/120 NM OF
LINE 16N72W-2N84W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR
9N76W 14N77W TO THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE NW CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US EXTENDS INTO THE FAR NW
ATLC N OF 30N W OF 78W. THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N77W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE JUST
OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO BEYOND 32N78W.
NARROWING UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 33N72W AND EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS S TO CENTRAL CUBA AND IS BEING FORCED NE IN RESPONSE
TO THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH TO THE W AND THE UPPER LOW N OF
PUERTO RICO. THE UPPER LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N66W AND
IS PRECEDING FLORENCE IN ITS WESTWARD MOTION WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH COVERING THE AREA FROM 62W-72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE TO
THE N AND W OF THE UPPER LOW FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 64W-62W. AN
UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR FLORENCE AND COVERS THE TROPICAL
ATLC FROM 35W-62W INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE ATLC NE OF FLORENCE N OF 20N FROM 23W-40W WITH THE
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N29W. THIS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE E OF FLORENCE. AT THE SURFACE
HOWEVER...BROAD RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE ATLC
WITH IT WEAKENING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
FLORENCE.

$$
WALLACE



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