[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 080513
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI SEP 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE IS CENTERED NEAR 21.3N 56.1W AT 08/0300
UTC MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION HOWEVER FLORENCE
IS POORLY ORGANIZED AND ELONGATED REMAINING A MINIMAL TROPICAL
STORM. CONVECTION IS NOW MAINLY TO THE N OF THE CENTER WITH
LITTLE OR NO SHEAR. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM
OF LINE 23N54W-21.5N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN
50W-54W AND FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 54W-60W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVE THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR AND AFRICAN DUST
WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE
CONTINUES TO BE ENTRAINED INTO TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF
LINE 19N40W-22N46W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 77W S OF 21N MOVING W
15 KT. LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 87W/88W S OF 20N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
AND ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THUS WAVE
POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY. CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 10N24W 9N35W 10N50W BECOMING
DISTORTED BY TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE THEN ALONG 13N62W 11N78W
ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-16N E
OF 22W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA AND WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE AXIS
FROM 31W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERING THE E HALF OF THE US DIPS S OVER
THE GULF N OF 23N WITH THE ASSOCIATED NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE NW ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA NEAR
30N84W TO OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE SE GULF AND EXTENDS N OVER
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. DESPITE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THE
GULF REMAINS RATHER SHOWER FREE TONIGHT EXCEPT IN THE FAR NE
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH
NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND EXTENDS OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A WEAK INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM N/CENTRAL VENEZUELA OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IN RESPONSE TO THE
BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC. GENERALLY MOIST
CONDITIONS COVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVER THE
NW SURROUNDING THE UPPER HIGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 66W-79W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF 86W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US EXTENDS INTO THE FAR NW
ATLC N OF 30N W OF 78W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N75W TO 31N79W WHERE IT PULLS UP STATIONARY INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS
ANCHORED NEAR 30N74W AND EXTENDS S TO CUBA BETWEEN 71W-78W. THIS
IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N W OF 78W
TO THE E COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAHAMA ISLAND CHAIN. THE
UPPER LOW IS N OF THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 22N64W AND IS
PRECEDING FLORENCE IN ITS WESTWARD MOTION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COVERING THE AREA FROM 60W-68W. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED E OF
FLORENCE AND THE TROPICAL WAVE E OF FLORENCE NEAR 20N52W AND
COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM 35W OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE ATLC NE OF FLORENCE N OF 22N FROM
25W-40W WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N30W. THIS IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE E OF
FLORENCE. AT THE SURFACE HOWEVER...BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF
THE ATLC WITH IT WEAKENING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF FLORENCE.

$$
WALLACE


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