[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071806
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU SEP 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE AT 07/1500 UTC IS NEAR
19.8N 53.4W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 7 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N60W IS PRODUCING
STRONG SWLY SHEAR ...AND SWLY DRY AIR...ON THE STORM.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 50W-52W...AND FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN
48W-50W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING
WEST 10 KT.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN
25W-27W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W SOUTH OF 21N
MOVING WEST 10 KT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN
40W-45W.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TO INCLUDE LAKE
MARACAIBO FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 70W-73W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W SOUTH OF 21N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N-18N
BETWEEN 83W-87W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 10N30W 14N40W 15N53W 10N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY
INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 13W-17W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 17W-20W
...FROM 10N-11N BETWEEN 30W-32W...FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 33W-35W
...AND FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 38W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR
27N89W.  A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND S MEXICO ALONG 22N95W 19N96W 21N100W.  A STATIONARY FRONT
ALSO EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO N FLORIDA AT 31N81W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 81W-88W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS ALSO OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM 26N-27N BETWEEN 93W-95W.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS OVER
THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 22N BETWEEN 80W-105W.  EXPECT THE TAIL
END OF THE SURFACE FRONT TO RETROGRADE AS A WARM FRONT BACK TO
TO NW GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WHILE THE OTHER END OF
THE FRONT STAYS STATIONARY OVER N FLORIDA.  EXPECT THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION BE ALONG THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES TRAVERSING THE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE THE
DOMINATE FEATURES...SEE ABOVE.  AN ITCZ EXTENDS FROM TRINIDAD TO
PANAMA ALONG 10N WITH CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
10N-12N BETWEEN 77W-80W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 21N60W IS PRODUCING
NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.  AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN S OF JAMAICA NEAR
17N79W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-23N BETWEEN 75W-90W.
EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W...WITH CONVECTION...DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 35N73W 31N81W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN
75W-78W.  A DOMINATE 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 35N43W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WSW TO 31N75W.  ALONG 33N50W
30N75W.  THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
ALONG 32N18W 28N23W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF
FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N
OF 25N BETWEEN 73W-80W.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AT 21N60W HAS
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM 12N-35N BETWEEN 55W-73W...AND IS PRODUCING SW
SHEAR AND DRY AIR OVER T.S. FLORENCE.  A LARGE HIGH IS OVER THE
E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 20N46W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM
10N-30N BETWEEN 12W-50W.

$$
FORMOSA



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