[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071109
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU SEP 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE AT 07/0900 UTC IS NEAR
20.1N 53.2W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO
22N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N48W
19N50W 17N51W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ELSEWHERE
FROM AND OTHER RAINSHOWERS FROM 13N TO 27N BETWEEN 45W AND 63W.
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AND BEING PUSHED WESTWARD FROM 20N TO 27N
BETWEEN 60W AND 63W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W SOUTH OF 13N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. LOW CLOUDS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 25W AND
28W NOW MAY BE THE WEATHER TO WATCH WITH THIS WAVE.
ANY SHOWERS ARE IN THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W SOUTH OF 22N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 38W AND 44W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 41W AND 44W.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W SOUTH
OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF LAKE
MARACAIBO...MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO THE EASTERN
SHORES OF JAMAICA BETWEEN 75W AND 76W...MAY BE WITH THE WAVE.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W SOUTH OF
21N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 11N14W 9N22W 10N26W 16N39W 16N53W 10N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N15W 7N26W
5N43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH EAST TEXAS
INTO LOUISIANA. A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM A 1013 MB ATLANTIC
OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N75W TO THE NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29.5N...ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N89W. THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO THE SOUTHWEST TO 21N94W...AND INLAND TO A 1010 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 20N100W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
28N TO 32N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF 0F
MEXICO...AND ALONG THE MEXICO COAST WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS
OF 22N97.5W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WEST
OF 29N85W 20N96W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N83W 27N87W 24N89W 20N92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA...FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W...WITH THE
INVADING AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW...RELATED TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL 23N60W LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A TROUGH STARTS OUT AT THE
23N60W LOW CENTER AND ENDS UP IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
UP AGAINST THE VENEZUELA COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 16N77W. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS ON TOP OF A WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE THE 23N60W MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS LOW INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS LOW CENTER IS ABOUT 400 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF T.S. FLORENCE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO 25N40W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM
28N50W TO THE 23N60W LOW PRESSURE CENTER. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 30W
AND 72W.

$$
MT


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