[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 070605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU SEP 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE AT 07/0600 UTC IS NEAR
19.6N 52.5W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO
23N BETWEEN 49W AND 53W...AND FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 49W AND
51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 53W AND 55W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W SOUTH OF 13N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W SOUTH OF 22N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 39W AND 41W...AND FROM
19N TO 21N BETWEEN 42W AND 44W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W SOUTH OF 21N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE MOVING
SHORE IN EASTERN HONDURAS...AND ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO NICARAGUA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 11N14W 9N22W 10N26W 16N39W 16N53W 10N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N15W 7N23W 5N33W 7N42W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH TEXAS INTO
LOUISIANA. A SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL RUNS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS ARE NORTHWEST OF 21N97W 24N87W 26N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
WATERS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WEST OF 78W...AND IN THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. A COMPARATIVELY MUCH WEAKER MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA HAVE DIMINISHED DURING THE LAST 4 TO 6 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO 20N
BETWEEN 64W AND 67W WHICH INCLUDES PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN THE AREA OF A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH STARTS OUT IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND ENDS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS BETWEEN 65W AND 75W...
REMAIN AFTER EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 15N76W. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF A WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE THE 22N60W MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS LOW INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS LOW CENTER IS ABOUT 440 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF T.S. FLORENCE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 29N42W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM
29N42W TO 30N53W TO THE 22N60W LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS
NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 30W AND 72W.

$$
MT


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