[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061122 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 06 2006

CORRECTION IN ORDER TO INCLUDE THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE AT 06/0900 UTC IS NEAR
18.4N 50.2W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO
22N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W...AND FROM 15N TO 16.5N BETWEEN 50W AND
51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
TO THE SOUTH OF T.S. FLORENCE FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 48W AND
52W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 52W AND
57W. MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 42W AND 53W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 15N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18.5N
TO 19.5N BETWEEN 36W AND 37.5W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN
35W AND 40W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR LESS FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS STILL SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W SOUTH OF 21N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN
THE EASTERN PANAMA COASTAL WATERS...CLOSE TO THE ITCZ.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 74W AND
81W UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM 18N TO CUBA NEAR 21N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W
NEAR A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 11N14W 9N22W 11N32W 13N51W 11N56W 10N61W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
11N16W 8N22W 5N27W 3N31W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS INTERIOR
MEXICO NORTH OF 27N...CUTTING ACROSS TEXAS FROM 27N TO 31N...AND
CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LOUISIANA...THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...AND THEN THROUGH MOST OF
GEORGIA TO THE CAROLINAS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS
FROM A CENTRAL GULF WATERS LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO A MUCH
SMALLER-SIZED CIRCULATION AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 28N WEST OF 86W WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND TROUGH. AN INTERIOR MEXICO UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 21N100W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
31N84W TO A NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 28N89W. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
25N94W AND CURVING INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR 27N100W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N85W 30N92W 28N100W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A WEAK AND SMALL LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 19N83W TO A WEAK AND DISSIPATING LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IN EL SALVADOR. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND IN SOUTHERN BELIZE. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 66W AND 73W ARE IN AN AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. THIS FLOW PATTERN IS IN THE MIDDLE
OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA AND A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 15N75W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE
15N74W HIGH PRESSURE CENTER COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA EAST
OF THE FLOW AROUND THE 19N85W LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO 31N76W.
A WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 24N70W 32N69W. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 23N55W INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 600 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH
WEST OF 50W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N34W TO 28N42W TO 27N50W TO THE 23N55W
LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N26W
TO 26N37W TO 25N46W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING AWAY FROM T.S. FLORENCE ON TOP OF THE
CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS
WITHIN 400 TO 500 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH. THE 23N55W
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ABOUT 420 NM TO 480 NM NORTHWEST OF
T.S. FLORENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM 15N40W TO
27N24W BEYOND 33N20W.

$$
MT


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