[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 060605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED SEP 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE AT 06/0300 UTC IS NEAR
17.7N 49.5W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17.5N
TO 20.5N BETWEEN 45W AND 49W. ANOTHER AREA OF SOME CELLS OF
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 50W
AND 51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 48W AND 57W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 15N. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N35W 17N38W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 20N
BETWEEN 34W AND 40W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N35W 17N38W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE
FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS BETWEEN HAITI AND CUBA AND
JAMAICA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHERN
COASTAL COLOMBIA FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM 11N76W TO 17N74W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 10N14W 8N24W 11N32W 9N38W 7N42W 8N47W 11N49W 10N55W 11N60W.
A FEW CELLS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED FROM 10N
TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 19W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN
20W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS INTERIOR
MEXICO NORTH OF 27N...CUTTING ACROSS TEXAS FROM 28N TO 31N...
AND CONTINUING ACROSS LOUISIANA...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MISSISSIPPI...ALL OF ALABAMA EXCEPT THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER...
AND THEN THROUGH GEORGIA TO THE CAROLINAS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A CENTRAL GULF WATERS LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TO A MUCH SMALLER-SIZED CIRCULATION AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...ALONG WITH MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
COVERING THE REST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM EARLIER AND
ALREADY-DISSIPATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 28N WEST OF
84W WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 99W AND 100W WITH AN INTERIOR
MEXICO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 21N100W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS LOW PRESSURE
CENTER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A WEAK AND SMALL
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 18N83W TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IN WESTERN HONDURAS/POSSIBLY IN EL SALVADOR. A FEW CELLS OF
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS
AND IN EL SALVADOR. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
EASTWARD ARE IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. THIS
FLOW PATTERN IS IN THE MIDDLE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AND
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
15N74W. A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 19N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW WITH THE 15N74W HIGH PRESSURE CENTER COVERS THE REST OF
THE AREA EAST OF THE FLOW AROUND THE 19N85W LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO 31N76W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 23N55W INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THAT CORNER OF THE AREA. CYCLONIC
FLOW IS WITHIN 600 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH WEST OF 50W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 31N34W TO 28N42W TO 27N50W TO THE 23N55W LOW PRESSURE
CENTER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN 400 TO 500 NM
TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH. THE 23N55W LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
ABOUT 420 NM TO 480 NM NORTHWEST OF T.S. FLORENCE. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM 15N40W TO 27N24W BEYOND 33N20W.

$$
MT


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