[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051108
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX AT 05/0900 UTC IS NEAR
17.7N 45.9W IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. IT IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME CELLS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS
OF 19N45W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
22N43W 16N46W 8N50W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W SOUTH OF 21N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 15.5N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N31W
14N34W 11N37W. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 54W AND 61W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS BETWEEN HAITI AND CUBA AND
JAMAICA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHERN
COASTAL COLOMBIA FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM 11N76W TO 17N74W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 14N17W 15N29W 14N34W 15N41W 13N48W 10N56W. THE GUINEA
AND GUINEA-BISSAU CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING
WITH TIME DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 10W AND
24W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPIN AWAY ANTICYCLONICALLY
FROM WHATEVER ENERGY REMAINS FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN...
FROM NORTHERN INTERIOR MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ALL OF TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA...TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
24N88W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 94W
AND THE COAST OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE
CENTRAL GULF WATERS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER. A SURFACE
TROUGH RUNS FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST OF THE U.S.A.
TO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW POURS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...MOVING AWAY FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO BAHAMAS TROUGH FROM 33N74W TO 27N77W. SOME OF THIS
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REACHES HONDURAS AND ENDS UP IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. OTHER PARTS OF THIS FLOW SPIN AROUND A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL WEST CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 14N84W IN
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG
THE NICARAGUA COAST. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW IN BETWEEN THE 17N60W LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND
THE 11N76W 17N74W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN
63W AND 72W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES
FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N74W TO THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS NEAR 27N77W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM CUBA BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W...
AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF 26N
EAST OF 85W. A BIG HIGH LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 23N62W 29N66W
BEYOND BERMUDA. A SMALL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR THE 58W/59W TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 17N60W.
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
33N37W TO 28N44W TO 26N55W TO 22N58W. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N35W TO 27N40W 25N50W 24N59W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GOES FROM 18N33W TO 23N27W 28N22W BEYOND 32N20W.

$$
MT


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