[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041054
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX AT 04/0900 UTC IS NEAR
15.6N 41.1W IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. IT IS MOVING
NORTHWEST 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 42W AND 44W.
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 39W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 37W AND 44W. A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N42W TO 27N47W TO 21N50W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 15N. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 30W AND 32W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 27W AND 31W.
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE EDGE OF
THE NORTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 23W AND
26W.

A 1007 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N47W
MOVING WEST 10 KT. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS...WARMING CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES...WEAKENING BUT LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS WAVE IS THE WAVE
THAT HAD BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE 13N47W LOW PRESSURE CENTER
AT AN EARLIER DATE...AND IT CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARD AFTER
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAD DEVELOPED. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 18N
BETWEEN 55W AND 66W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. CELLS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC COASTAL WATERS...AND
IN THE NORTHWESTERN COASTAL WATERS OF HAITI. A CELL OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 13N74.5W PROBABLY
IS NOT RELATED TO THE WAVE...BUT RATHER TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...TO THE EAST OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-NICARAGUA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...IS MOVING
ON TOP OF THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 17N16W 16N24W 14N30W 15N40W 12N49W 12N58W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF THE
ITCZ AND REMAIN IN THE AREA FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 9W AND 18W.
SOME OF THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING IN THIS
AREA DURING THE LAST FIVE HOURS.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPIN AWAY ANTICYCLONICALLY
FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN...WHICH IS OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS MOISTURE COVERS INTERIOR MEXICO NORTH
OF 27N...TEXAS NORTH OF 30N...ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND BEYOND.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA TO AN EASTERN GULF LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N86W TO
25N95W TO 21N104W IN WEST CENTRAL MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR IS WITHIN 200 TO 280 NM TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST OF THE
TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM SOUTHEASTERN
MISSISSIPPI TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO BY THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC TO 21N BETWEEN 92W AND 97W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 25N EAST OF 87W...RELATED
TO THE 27N74W-TO-NICARAGUA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
27N74W LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 60 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
JAMAICA...TO WEST CENTRAL NICARAGUA. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W. ONLY THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS NOT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THIS TROUGH. DRY
UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS BEING PUSHED FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND EVEN THE AREA OF THE ITCZ INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. INDIVIDUAL CELLS
OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY IN THE COASTAL WATERS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA SOUTH OF 12N83W 10N77W. THIS PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN OCCURRING NEAR THE ITCZ AND ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-NICARAGUA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 27N74W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 60 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA...TO
WEST CENTRAL NICARAGUA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE BAHAMAS FROM CUBA
TO 26N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W...THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
SOUTH OF 25N EAST OF 87W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 79W
AND 81W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONNECTS ONE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 18N59W TO 24N66W TO THE 27N74W LOW PRESSURE
CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO
20N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N42W TO 27N47W TO 21N50W. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 26N46W TO 25N54W. A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT GOES FROM 25N54W TO 27N62W TO 30N66W. A STATIONARY
FRONT GOES FROM 30N66W BEYOND 32N67W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N TO 26N BETWEEN 47W AND 54W. SCATTERED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 32N35W 30N38W 29N40W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
32N26W TO 25N37W TO 23N56W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM
20N36W TO 28N30W...TO THE NORTHEAST OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 20W AND
28W.

$$
MT





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