[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 040611
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX AT 04/0300 UTC IS NEAR
14.8N 40.4W IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. IT IS MOVING
NORTHWEST 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 TO 150 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N43W
TO 28N46W TO 25N47W TO 22N52W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 16N. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 29W AND 32W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE EDGE OF THE NORTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 24W AND 26W. A FEW CELLS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 21W AND 23W.

A 1007 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N46W
MOVING WEST 10 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 45W AND 47W. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER
HAD BEEN DROPPED DURING THE MORNING ANALYSIS YESTERDAY.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 44W AND 51W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS WAVE IS THE WAVE
THAT HAD BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE 13N46W LOW PRESSURE CENTER
AT AN EARLIER DATE...AND IT CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARD AFTER
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAD DEVELOPED. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 18N
BETWEEN 56W AND 63W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. CELLS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 69W AND 71W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW...TO THE EAST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-NICARAGUA
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...IS MOVING ON TOP OF THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 18N16W 16N24W 14N29W 13N32W 14N38W 12N49W 11N58W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 6N
TO 8N BETWEEN 13W AND 14W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 14W AND 17W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPIN AWAY ANTICYCLONICALLY
FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN...WHICH IS OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS MOISTURE COVERS INTERIOR MEXICO NORTH
OF 27N...TEXAS NORTH OF 30N...ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND BEYOND.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA TO AN EASTERN GULF LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 26N86W TO
25N95W TO 20N103 IN WEST CENTRAL MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR IS WITHIN 200 TO 280 NM TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST OF THE
TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA
NEAR 30N83W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION COVERS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...RELATED TO THE 26N74W-TO-NICARAGUA
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PARTS EAST
OF THERE TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER. SOME CELLS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO 23N BETWEEN 92W AND 93W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
26N74W LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 60 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
JAMAICA...TO WEST CENTRAL NICARAGUA. ONLY THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA IS NOT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THIS TROUGH. DRY UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW IS BEING PUSHED FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
EVEN THE AREA OF THE ITCZ INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...SOUTH OF 13N83W
11N77W. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING NEAR THE ITCZ AND
ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-NICARAGUA MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 26N74W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 60 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA...TO
WEST CENTRAL NICARAGUA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE BAHAMAS...THE EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 18N TO 28N BETWEEN 74W AND 86W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 22N TO 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CONNECTS ONE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 19N59W TO
24N68W TO THE 26N74W LOW PRESSURE CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N43W
TO 28N46W TO 25N47W TO 22N52W. A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N39W TO 27N47W TO 26N55W. A STATIONARY FRONT GOES
FROM 31N66W BEYOND 34N68W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 1007 MB SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 13N46W. IT IS ABOUT 400 NM TO THE EAST OF
THE 58W/59W TROPICAL WAVE. IT IS ALSO ABOUT 200 NM TO THE SOUTH
OF THE BASE OF THE DEEP LAYER 32N43W 22N52W TROUGH. A SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N24W TO 27N33W 24N42W TO 23N53W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM 20N36W TO 28N30W...
TO THE NORTHEAST OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 20W AND 28W.

$$
MT


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