[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031914 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 03 2006

...CORRECTED FOR TIME IN HEADER...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13.3N
38.7W OR ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11.5N-16N BETWEEN 37W AND
43W. THIS LOW IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES NWWD AT
ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE WARM OCEAN WATERS. IF THE CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
INITIATED THIS AFTERNOON.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. ITS AXIS IS ALONG 23/24W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE FROM 11.5N-16N
BETWEEN 22W-29W.

ACCORDING TO SATELLITE PICTURES AND SURFACE DATA...A NEW
TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE ADDED TO THE 18 UTC MAP ALONG 58/59W
SOUTH OF 17N. AN INVERTED V-SHAPE PATTERN IS SEEN ON VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND JUST
BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES TOMORROW MORNING...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
RAIN.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO
THE ABC ISLANDS ALONG 68W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
THIS TROPICAL WAVE ALSO SHOWS AN INVERTED V CLOUD PATTERN WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 65W-70W.
MOISTURE BEHIND THE WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH THE LOCAL ISLAND
EFFECTS TO ENHANCE THE AFTERNOON SHOWER AND TSTMS ACTIVITY OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N17W 14N35W 11N46W 9N60W.
OUTSIDE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER AND THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...THERE
ARE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NE GEORGIA INTO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N90W TO THE SW GULF AND THE MEXICO
COAST JUST SOUTH OF TAMPICO. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
WHILE VERY DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IS KEEPING THE NW GULF CLOUD AND
SHOWER FREE W OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.  A BROAD UPPER HIGH
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM JOHN COVERS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PORTION OF MEXICO AND TEXAS. THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
TROPICAL STORM JOHN...WHICH IS OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
IS SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. AN
UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COVERING CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 27N95W 23N96W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE GULF SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 22N97W TO
28N83W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM AN UPPER LOW LOCATED
NEAR 25N72W ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER HIGH COVERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.
A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NORTH OF 18N W OF 75W OVER
JAMAICA...CUBA...THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA. ONE OF THESE
CLUSTERS IS OVER THE ISLE OF YOUTH. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN...AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF COSTA RICA
DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
PRODUCING SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...
MAINLY SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS FEATURE
IS ALSO BRINGING WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TYPICAL STREAMERS OR LINE CLOUDS
ARE FORMING DOWNSTREAM   OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 25N72W AND LIES SOUTH OF AN
UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS EWD AND SEWD
TO NEAR 27N58W. EAST OF THE RIDGE THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH THAT
RUNS FROM 31N37W TO 17N50W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
AREA NEAR 31N43W AND CONTINUES MAINLY WWD TO 29N62W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN AROUND 100 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM 29N62W TO BEYOND BERMUDA. AN UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC AND WESTERN AFRICA. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH LOCATED NE OF THE
AZORES ACROSS THE E ATLC. THIS FEATURE IS KEEPING THIS AREA
MOSTLY DRY AND CLEAR. VIS SATELLITE PICTURES AND THE SAHARAN AIR
LAYER FROM UW-CIMSS SHOW A BROAD AREA OF AFRICAN DUST COVERING A
GOOD PORTION OF THE ATLC OCEAN BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER MENTIONED ABOVE. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
DUST IS REACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

$$
GR




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