[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031101
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N 37.5W.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 38W AND 41W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N39W 14N35W. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT TO THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE IS UNLIKELY AS
IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MERGE LATER
TODAY WITH THE 11.5N 42.5W LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
11.5N 42.5W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN
40W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 50W AND 59W NEAR WHAT
APPEARS TO BE A SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 56W FROM 10N
TO 20N. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RE-LOCATED TO BE ALONG
21W SOUTH OF 20N. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE WAVE
EITHER HAS NOT BEEN MOVING MUCH OR IT WAS LOCATED INCORRECTLY
WHEN IT FIRST WAS INTRODUCED INTO THE ANALYSIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 18N
BETWEEN 17W AND 21W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN
23W AND 24W...AND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N24W 14N26W
13N28W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 14N. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. SHOWERS
ALSO HAVE DEVELOPED FROM 17N TO PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 64W
AND 66W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 15N17W 15N20W 14N25W 12N34W 10N46W 9N60W. CELLS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN
10W AND 14W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPIN AWAY ANTICYCLONICALLY
FROM TROPICAL STORM JOHN WHICH IS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THIS MOISTURE COVERS INTERIOR MEXICO WEST OF 103W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE FAR WEST TEXAS BEYOND
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM
A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N85W IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR 26N90W TO ANOTHER
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 21N96W TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 18N98W JUST WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN 300 NM TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST
OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 31N87W
ALONG THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA PANHANDLE BORDER TO 26N90W IN THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
18N95W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF WATERS SOUTH OF THE LINE 28N83W
27N90W 23N100W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
25N72W LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO JAMAICA TO NORTHEASTERN/NORTH
CENTRAL NICARAGUA. ONLY THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
IS NOT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW FROM THIS TROUGH. DRY UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS BEING
PUSHED FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND EVEN THE AREA
OF THE ITCZ INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 77W
AND THE NICARAGUA/PANAMA COASTS. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
OCCURRING NEAR THE ITCZ AND ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-NICARAGUA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 25N72W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW PRESSURE
CENTER COVERS THE WATERS FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN 68W AND 80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA/THE GULF OF MEXICO/THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
17N TO 32N BETWEEN 69W AND 86W. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP
LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO 27N52W ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 30N51W
30N56W. A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM 30N56W BEYOND BERMUDA.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N51W
30N44W BEYOND 33N39W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 15 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N51W 28N60W BEYOND BERMUDA. AN EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1018 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N23W TO 28N32W AND 26N45W. A 1019 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N65W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
SOUTH OF THE COLD/STATIONARY FRONT FROM 23N TO 29N/30N BETWEEN
56W AND 80W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N21W TO 27N25W TO ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 23N43W TO 18N50W. A SHEAR AXIS EXISTS BETWEEN
18N50W AND THE 25N72W LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

$$
MT


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