[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021039
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W S OF 18N WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 11N MOVING W 5-10 KT. BROAD ELONGATED LOW/MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE
10.5N39.5W-14N42W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM
12N-16N BETWEEN 28W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W S OF 19N WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 15N MOVING W 15 KT. THE WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
SWIRL HAS FILLED IN WITH CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND IS MOVING
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE 13.5N57W-16.5N62W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N16W 12N21W 10N35W 8N45W 11N57W
ACROSS THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN
ACROSS COSTA RICA/W PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 19W-23W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150
NM OF THE AXIS FROM 32W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NE GEORGIA INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF NEAR 30N87W TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N95W AND IS
BEARING A SHEAR LINE. WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A
1010 MB LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.
VERY DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IS KEEPING THE NW GULF CLOUD AND SHOWER
FREE W OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. A VERY BROAD AND STRONG UPPER
HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH A HURRICANE IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS
ALL OF MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL US EXTENDING OVER THE W GULF AS
WELL. THIS IS FURTHER ENHANCING THE DRY AIR OVER THE W GULF. THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE NW ATLC IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN BUT STILL
EXTENDS S TO OVER FLORIDA AND W CUBA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE S GULF S OF 24N E
OF 94W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 19N W OF 83W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA INTO THE
CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 13N79W. DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION N OF 16N W OF 73W TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES...
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
S OF 11N W OF 75W DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE ITCZ AXIS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT EXCEPT OVER
THE LESSER ANTILLES WHERE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAKENING UPPER HIGH OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE S OVER
FLORIDA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST RIDGE EXTENDING
TO EASTWARD N OF BERMUDA. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC
AND LIES S OF THE EAST/WEST RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TURKS AND
CAICOS NEAR 22N73W COVERING THE AREA FROM 65W-79W AND INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 27N
TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 64W-80W. A SECOND CUT-OFF
UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N44W BUT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR
AND PRODUCING MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC TO THE S OF THE ABOVE UPPER LOW EXTENDING
FROM AFRICA ALONG 20N ALONG 16N34W TO AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 16N57W.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 33N29W WSW TO
27N70W IS KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC DRY AND CLEAR.
AFRICA DUST IS OBSERVED ON THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM 12N-26N E OF 55W.

$$
WALLACE



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