[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 020511
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT SEP 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W S OF 18N WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 11N MOVING W 5 KT. BROAD MID LEVEL INVERTED-V
CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. BROAD AREA
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION CONFINED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 20N WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL SWIRL IS
OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 13N55W-17N61W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N15W 12N30W 10N40W 8N53W 7N63W
ACROSS THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN
ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 21W TO THE
COAST OF AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 225 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 24W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES
REGION OVER THE SE US INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AND THE E BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 86W-93W WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEAKENING SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A 1011 MB LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. VERY DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IS KEEPING THE
GULF CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. A VERY
BROAD UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH A HURRICANE IN THE E PACIFIC
REGION COVERS ALL OF MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL US EXTENDING OVER
THE W GULF AS WELL. THIS IS FURTHER ENHANCING THE DRY AIR OVER
THE W GULF. UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE NW ATLC EXTENDS S TO OVER
FLORIDA AND THE E GULF. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE SE GULF E OF A LINE FROM TAMPA
FLORIDA TO THE NW TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF
19N W OF 80W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 13N80W.
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 18N W OF 71W
AND S OF 18N W OF 84W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS 12N W OF 75W DUE TO THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE ITCZ AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES BY LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE S OVER THE FAR
W ATLC AND FLORIDA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH ANOTHER RIDGE
EXTENDING TO N OF BERMUDA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-27N W OF 77W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INCLUDING THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. AN UPPER LOW LIES TO THE E OF
THIS SOUTHERN RIDGE NEAR 24N72W COVERING THE AREA S OF 30N FROM
65-77W AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 29N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN
68W-77W. A SECOND CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N44W BUT
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR AND NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC TO THE
S OF THE ABOVE UPPER LOW EXTENDING FROM AFRICA ALONG 20N ALONG
17N44W TO AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 17N55W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 33N29W WSW TO 27N65W IS GIVING THE ATLC
W OF 60W DRY AND CLEAR. AFRICA DUST IS OBSERVED ON THE LAST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM 12N-26N E
OF 50W.

$$
WALLACE


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