[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 020014
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI SEP 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO AT 01/2100 UTC IS NEAR
37.2N 77.1W. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
RICHMOND VIRGINIA. IT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST AT 10
MPH. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS
TCPAT5/WTNT35 KWNH FOR MORE DETAILS.  ERNESTO IS LOSING TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS.  NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY ALONG THE COAST FROM 37N-41N
BETWEEN 69W-76W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING
WEST 10-15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N38W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 38W-43W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W MOVING WEST 15 KT.
A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
15N55W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 54W-58W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 16N17W 13N20W 12N30W 9N40W 8N45W 8N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 17W-19W...AND FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN
22W-26W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
26W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ALONG 30N84W 21N87W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...W CUBA
... AND NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.  A 1015 MB HIGH IS ALONG THE
COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 29N96W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 24N90W.  SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS OVER THE E GULF E
OF 86W...WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W GULF BETWEEN
86W-98W.  EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO ONLY DRIFT TO THE E...
SINCE THERE IS VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL PUSH OVER THE SURFACE
TROUGH.  CONVECTION SHOULD BE IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRESENTLY VOID OF TROPICAL WAVES...HOWEVER
ONE IS APPROACHING AT 55W.  A 1005 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER N
COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W.  5-10 KT EASTERLIES ARE OVER MOST OF THE
SEA EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA WHERE 20 KT EASTERLIES
ARE NOTED.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN
70W-76W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN
78W-83W.  MORE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 82W-88W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN
75W-78W...AND FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 81W-85W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE BASE OF A RIDGE IS OVER W CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN
N OF 17N BETWEEN 75W-85W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N71W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 65W-80W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED E OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N55W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N56W.
ANOTHER 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N30W. BOTH
HIGHS ARE PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
BESIDES THE LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS...AND THE HIGH E OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N44W.  CYCLONIC
FLOW IS FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 37W-50W. A RIDGE COVERS THE E
ATLANTIC FROM 10N-25N E OF 37W.

$$
FORMOSA


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