[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI SEP 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO AT 01/1500 UTC IS NEAR
36.4N 77.6W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 70 NM/130 KM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA. IT IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT5/WTNT35
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 34N TO 38N
BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF UP TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE RAINS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDER-
STORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N35W 14N36W
11N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W. A 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W MOVING WEST
15  KT. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR
15N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN
51W AND 58W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 13N17W 11N26W 11N33W 8N39W 10N51W 10N58W 9N62W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N14W 11N22W 10N30W
10N38W 10N47W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HURRICANE
JOHN IS POURING ACROSS PRACTICALLY ALL OF MEXICO...EVEN INTO
TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 25N106W IN
MEXICO TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND TO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND INTO
OKLAHOMA NEAR 35N99W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA NEAR 32N86W INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR
29N82W...TO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N86W TO THE CENTRAL GULF
WATERS NEAR 24N90W...TO 22N92W TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER NEAR
19N93.5W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SYNOPTIC SCALE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO CENTRAL AMERICA
IN NICARAGUA. PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS
EXPERIENCING THE IMPACT OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THIS TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF 21N84W 16N77W 16N66W WITH THIS TROUGH.
ONLY THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER IS RECEIVING UPPER LEVEL DRY
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR THE ITCZ.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN
EASTERN NICARAGUA AND NEARBY COASTAL WATERS FROM 12N TO 15N
BETWEEN 82W AND 85W. PRECIPITATION WAS TAKING PLACE 4 TO 5 HOURS
AGO IN SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. THAT PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED
AS THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED THERE. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM THE PANAMA COAST TO 10N
BETWEEN 77W AND 81W JUST NORTH OF THE ITCZ.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM ANDROS ISLAND
IN THE BAHAMAS TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26.5N77W TO 29N76W
TO 32N74W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IN BETWEEN THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH AND
THE 25N71W LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
RUNS FROM AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
34N18W...ABOUT 100 NM NORTHWEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N24W...TO A COMPARATIVELY BIGGER-
SIZED LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N44W...TO A SMALLER-SIZED LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 26N53W TO 27N62W TO A MASSIVE DEEP LAYER
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N71W. CYCLONIC FLOW ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AROUND THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
31N62W 27N68W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE 28N65W 25N69W
22N72W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 58W
AND 66W...FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W...AND FROM 26N
TO 30N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF 21N84W 16N77W 16N66W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 20N TO 29N BETWEEN 66W AND 76W. A LARGE SCALE BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE RUNS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 36N23W
TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N47W...TO 30N60W.
UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM
THE ITCZ NEAR 20W...WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN...AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

$$
MT




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