[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS INLAND OVER NORTH CAROLINA CENTERED
NEAR 35.1N 77.8W AT 01/0900 UTC WHICH IS ABOUT 17NM SSW OF
KINGSTON NORTH CAROLINA OR ABOUT 130 NM SW OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BANDS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL...EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS COVER
MUCH OF THE E COAST FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA TO ATLANTIC
CITY NEW JERSEY. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND TRACKING
TO OVER PENNSYLVANIA ON SAT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 16N WITH A 1011 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 10N MOVING W 5-10 KT. BROAD MID LEVEL INVERTED-V
CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A WEAK
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. BROAD AREA SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N-16N BETWEEN 33W-44W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 19N WITH A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 16N MOVING W 10 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER IS
OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 50W-56W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 11N27W 12N35W THEN ALONG
7N38W 9N52W 10N56W 8N62W ACROSS THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA
AND S PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N E OF 25W TO THE COAST OF
AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 25W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG DEEP LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE S GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 85W-97W WITH
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A 1008 MB LOW OVER
SW GEORGIA ALONG 28N84W INTO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N91W TO
JUST OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS/MEXICO. VERY DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IS
KEEPING MOST OF THE GULF CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO IN THE W ATLC COVERS THE E GULF E
OF 85W. ALTHOUGH THIS IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING E FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO EXTENDS INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 19N W OF 78W AND AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS S MEXICO TO OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICA. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE
CARIBBEAN ALONG 15N76W TO NEAR 12N80W. DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N
FROM 76W TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
13N81W-17N86W INCLUDING THE TIP OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 18N FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE
LESSER ANTILLES REMAIN CLEAR THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS
MORNING WITH AN OUTER RAIN BANDS N OF 30N BETWEEN 74W-80W.
BROAD UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO EXTENDS A RIDGE S OVER
THE BAHAMAS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND E TO N OF BERMUDA
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR S AS
25N BETWEEN 74W-80W INCLUDING THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. AN UPPER
TROUGH LIES TO THE E OF THIS RIDGE WITH THE AXIS FROM 31N60W
THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 24N69W ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N62W TO
22N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
20N-29N BETWEEN 57W-74W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE NE
ATLC NEAR 32N22W WSW TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N42W TO 25N48W. AN
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC TO THE S OF THE
ABOVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AFRICA TO NEAR 60W WITH A HIGH
CENTER NEAR 16N32W. ANOTHER AREA OF AFRICA DUST IS OBSERVED ON
THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES COVERING THE E ATLC FROM
10N-25N E OF 47W. FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
UNDER THE LARGE SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE ATLC E OF 60W.

$$
WALLACE



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