[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 010857
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 01 2006

WSR-88D DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS MOVING STEADILY
INLAND OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
010/13.  THE REFLECTIVITIES SHOW THAT MOST OF THE RAINFALL IS NORTH
OF THE CENTER AND ALREADY EXTENDS INTO VIRGINIA...BUT RECENT
VELOCITY DATA INDICATE THAT 50 KT WINDS COULD STILL BE OCCURRING
EAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE OCEAN...AND THAT IS THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES
FARTHER INLAND...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST USES THE DECAY SHIPS
GUIDANCE IN ANTICIPATING ERNESTO TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR
LESS THAN 12 MORE HOURS.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY
THIS TIME TOMORROW AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER BAROCLINIC
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  BOTH
THE INTENSITY AND TRACK SHOWN IN THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST ARE VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE COMBINATION OF ERNESTO AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE NOT DIRECTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      01/0900Z 35.1N  77.8W    50 KT
 12HR VT     01/1800Z 36.7N  77.4W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     02/0600Z 38.6N  77.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     02/1800Z 40.5N  78.1W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     03/0600Z 42.7N  79.2W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     04/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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