[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON OCT 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W S OF 13N MOVING W
NEAR 10-15 KT.  THIS WAVE IS NOT RECOGNIZABLE ON SATELLITE
IMAGES OR IN ANY OF THE AVAILABLE DATA.  NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE HAS BECOME MUCH LESS DISTINCT THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY AS IT
IS INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO ITS N. THIS TROPICAL
WAVE WILL SOON SPLIT WITH THE NRN PORTION GETTING PULLED NW
WHILE THE SRN PORTION CONTINUES W.  A FEW MID LEVEL SWIRLS ARE
EVIDENT ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS.  THE INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL JET IS PRODUCING LOTS OF MOISTURE IN THE CARIBBEAN.
PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER JAMAICA AND E CUBA FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 76W-81W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 77W-81W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
ALONG 85W/86W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT.  A SURFACE LOW IS
DEVELOPING ON THE WAVE AXIS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR
17N86W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN
81W-87W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 8N20W 9N30W 8N40W 5N50W 5N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER W
AFRICA FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 9W-15W.  SCATTERED MODERATE IS FROM
9N-13N BETWEEN 18W-21W...AND FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 37W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALONG 31N86W 20N97W.  SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE
W GULF N OF 24N BETWEEN 90W-97W.  OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
ARE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... SLIGHT RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 90W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
GULF.  THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER MEXICO MOVING
E.  EXPECT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  A COLD FRONT WILL BE
INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS BY TUESDAY EVENING MOVING SE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  SEE ABOVE.  IN
ADDITION ...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER N VENEZUELA TO INCLUDE THE SEA OF MARACAIBO FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 70W-73W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER.  A MUCH LARGER
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W.  ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN.  EXPECT THE
TROPICAL WAVES TO CONTINUE MOVING W WITH CONVECTION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  CONVECTION WILL BE HEAVIEST W OF 78W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS OFF THE N CAROLINA COAST NEAR 34N75W.  A COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N54W 27N60W.  A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO CENTRAL CUBA TO 26N70W 22N77W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE
BAHAMAS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 72W-76W.  A 1017 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N44W.  A 1000 MB LOW IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N28W.  THIS LOW IS COLD-CORE AT THE MOMENT.  AN
OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS E TO 32N24W.  A COLD FRONT CONTINUES S
ALONG 29N23W 23N30W 20N40W 20N50W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT FROM 26N-35N BETWEEN 17W-23W.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... A LONG RIDGE AXIS  EXTENDS NE FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH OVER HISPANIOLA TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N50W.
A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 40W.

$$
FORMOSA





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