[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON OCT 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS A LOW AMPLITUDE FEATURE AND IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE
WAVE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SURINAME AND
GUYANA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
9N-13N BETWEEN 56W-62W TO INCLUDE TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 75W
SOUTH OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
ADJACENT LAND AREAS.  TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE AREA. THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH A COLD FRONT THAT
CROSSES CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN
74W-79W TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF HAITI...EASTERN CUBA AND
JAMAICA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT.
SOME LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUD TURNING IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGES.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 80W-84W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 9N30W 7N40W 6N50W 6N56W.
OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 10W-15W
AND FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 16W-22W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO
FOUND WITHIN 100 NM NORTH OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 26W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALONG 31N86W 20N97W. SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN 85W-92W. FAIR SKIES PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF GIVING THE AREA MOSTLY WLY FLOW AND DRY
AIR. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING THE SLY
RETURN FLOW TO ESTABLISH OVER THE WESTERN GULF TODAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN FEATURE IS THE COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN CUBA AND THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 75W AND THEIR INTERACTION IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST CARIBBEAN. THE
WAVE IS ALSO GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...SWLY FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. A DIFFLUENT
PATTERN ALOFT IS SUPPORTING THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS WILL BLOW ACROSS
THE BASIN EAST OF 75W. N TO NE WINDS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN CUBA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N65W...THEN CONTINUES SW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
AROUND 100 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 20N-27W. A 1023 MB IS
BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR 31N75W COVERING THE W ATLC AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG
31N27W 24N35W 23N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
150 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 26N-30N. IN BETWEEN THESE FRONTAL
SYSTEMS THERE IS A SURFACE RIDGE THAT REACHES THE NE CARIBBEAN.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 26N
AND W OF 75W.  AN UPPER HIGH OVER HISPANIOLA EXTENDS A RIDGE
BETWEEN 60W-75W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 25N55W. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 45W WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR 32N30W. SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ARE ADVECTING
ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE E ATLC E OF 35W AND THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
GR






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