[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261029
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD
MID LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN
45W-55W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK LOW
LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 6N32W 12N50W THEN DISTORTED
BY SURFACE FEATURES CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
150 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 30W-35W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN
27W-44W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90
NM OF LINE 4N22W TO OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 7N14W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 21N92W EXTENDING N TO OVER THE SE US AND ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE FAR W ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER THE E US AND THE GULF N OF 23N E OF 90W.
RETURN SURFACE FLOW HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS LEAVING
ONLY WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF 94W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
REMAINS CLEAR THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NARROWING UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING
FROM HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W NE TO E CUBA NEAR 20N76W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N83W NNE TO THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT BEGINNING TO
DISSIPATE FROM THE W ATLC COLD FRONT ACROSS CUBA NEAR 20N75W TO
JUST S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N-21N W OF 80W AND N OF 16N ACROSS
JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA FROM 68W-77W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE SW
CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA/PANAMA NEAR 11N77W NE INTO
THE W/CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND AND
WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA WHICH IS
ALONG THE W EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER SHOWER FREE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA
INTO THE FAR W ATLC W OF 74W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W
ATLC IS N OF 21N FROM 51W-74W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N49W EXTENDING SW JUST S OF THE S
BAHAMA ISLANDS TO E CUBA NEAR 20N74W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE
FRONT N OF 24N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT TO OVER
HISPANIOLA. VERY DRY AIR IS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED COLD
AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE W ATLC. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS TO
24N55W AND A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE E EXTENDING
FROM 28N48W SW TO NEAR 18N54W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
12N56W-20N59W AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH. BROAD AND DRY UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL
ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 28N35W COVERING THE AREA FROM 20W-44W. AN
UPPER LOW IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N32W. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC N OF 17N E OF 20W. ALSO AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 20W-47W WITH
A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 31N31W.

$$
WALLACE





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