[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260521
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU OCT 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD
MID LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN
45W-53W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK LOW
LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W IS NO LONGER EVIDENT.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 6N30W 11N43W 13N62W ACROSS
THE S CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 8N78W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 250/300 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 24W-44W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 5N20W TO
THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 8N13W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 21N94W EXTENDING N TO OVER THE SE US. AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER THE E US AND
THE GULF N OF 24N E OF 92W. RETURN SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 21N95W-TO THE TEXAS COAST
NEAR 27N97W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR TONIGHT
WITH ONLY SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DOTTING THE
AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NARROWING UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING
FROM HONDURAS NEAR 15N85W NE TO E CUBA NEAR 21N77W. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS STATIONARY FROM THE W ATLC COLD FRONT ACROSS CUBA
NEAR 21N76W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N88W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT W
OF 82W AND N OF 17N ACROSS JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND E CUBA
FROM 69W-78W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA/PANAMA NEAR 11N77W NE INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN ALONG THE W EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE S OF 15N FROM
77W-84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER SHOWER
FREE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA
INTO THE FAR W ATLC W OF 76W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W
ATLC IS N OF 22N FROM 53W-76W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N51W EXTENDING SW JUST S OF THE S
BAHAMA ISLANDS TO OVER E CUBA NEAR 21N76W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE
FRONT N OF 23N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 120/150 NM SE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT TO OVER E
CUBA. VERY DRY AIR IS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE W ATLC TO 80W. A NARROW UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO
26N54W AND A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE E EXTENDING FROM
26N48W SW TO JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 18N57W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N54W-TO 21N58W AND IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE W OF THE TROUGH
FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 57W-63W. BROAD AND DRY UPPER RIDGE COVERS
THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 28N35W COVERING THE AREA FROM
24W-45W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N32W.
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 23W
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INLAND OVER W AFRICA. ALSO AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 20W-50W WITH
A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 29N35W.

$$
WALLACE




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