[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250520
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED OCT 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 18N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD MID
LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE THAT IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN.
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK LOW
LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 18N DRIFTING WESTWARD.  WAVE IS
BENEATH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WITH NO DISCERNIBLE SATELLITE
SIGNATURE WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 7N21W 11N38W 14N58W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180
NM OF THE AXIS FROM 38W-55W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS DOT
THE AREA FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 10W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 21N92W EXTENDING N TO OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AT THE SURFACE...A 1023 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA OF LOUISIANA. A RAPIDLY DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W TO JUST N OF TAMPICO
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR TONIGHT
WITH THIN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE E GULF S OF 26N
E OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM W
CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 15N87W. THE COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH THE W ATLC ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN OVER
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N88W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM S
OF THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N66W N
INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE W EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM PANAMA NEAR 9N81W TO 15N79W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER SHOWER FREE TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT MOVED OFF THE E US COAST COVERS THE W
ATLC N OF 24N W OF 60W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING
THE REGION NEAR 32N58W EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMA
ISLANDS TO ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 26N62W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 225 NM E OF THE
FRONT N OF 22N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE FRONT S OF 22N TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND E
CUBA. VERY DRY AIR IS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE W ATLC TO 80W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A NARROWING UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 26N60W BECOMING ENTRAINED IN A
BROAD AND VERY DRY UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL ATLC
ANCHORED NEAR 25N42W COVERING THE AREA FROM 30W-55W. A WEAK MID
LEVEL LOW IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 22N51W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N37W TO 22N52W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N28W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLC N OF 21N E OF 30W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING
THE REGION NEAR 32N14W ACROSS THE WESTERN MOST CANARY ISLANDS TO
26N24W THEN DISSIPATING TO 26N32W. ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ARE N
OF THE REGION. ALSO AT THE SURFACE...A SMALL RIDGE COVERS THE E
ATLC WITH A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 22N34W AND A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR
30N41W.

$$
WALLACE




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