[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 241020
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD
MID LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 14N-19N AND WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
INVERTED-V SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS CURRENTLY OBSCURED
BY HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE POSITION BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 14N TO INLAND OVER
COLOMBIA FROM 73W-76W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 8N21W 10N36W 12N55W 10N62W
ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA AND PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR
9N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE AXIS FROM 55W-59W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF 5N FROM 6W-24W AND FROM
5N-14N BETWEEN 25W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E US...THE N GULF N OF 26N E OF
92W AND INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE FAR S GULF ACROSS W CUBA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG
22N85W TO 21N93W THEN S INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE COAST
OF S MEXICO. VERY DRY AIR IS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N W OF 92W.NARROW UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF EXTENDING FROM TAMPICO
MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE W CARIBBEAN W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
NEAR 18N83W COVERING THE AREA W OF 79W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM W CUBA NEAR 22N81W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR
15N87W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NICARAGUA NEAR 14N84W TO
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 82W-84W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 20N-22N
BETWEEN 81W-85W. BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED JUST N OF HISPANIOLA
COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF VENEZUELA W OF 64W AND OVER HAITI. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER CLEAR AGAIN THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT IS OVER THE E US AND N GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 70W WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N68W SW ACROSS THE N
BAHAMA ISLANDS TO ACROSS W CUBA NEAR 23N81W. A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N70W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N73W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM SE OF THE FRONT S OF 26N WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM
20N-30N BETWEEN 66W-70W. VERY DRY AIR IS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 26N TO 80W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A NARROWING UPPER
HIGH LOCATED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W WEDGED BETWEEN THE
UPPER TROUGH ABOVE AND THE UPPER LOWS IN THE TROPICS. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 63W FROM 26N-32N AND IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
24N60W-32N61W. A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS ARE IN TROPICAL ATLC
CENTERED NEAR 20N29W 20N50W AND A WEAKENING ONE NEAR 20N60W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS BENEATH THE CENTER LOW FROM 18N51W TO
26N40W WITH ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN
47W-54W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS N OF THESE LOWS EXTENDING FROM
30N51W N TO BEYOND 32N48W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NE
ATLC N OF 25N FROM 20W-40W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N28W TO 29N42W. ALSO AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC WITH A 1019 MB HIGH
NEAR 22N27W AND A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N47W.

$$
WALLACE





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