[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 240532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE OCT 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. MID
LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-15N
BETWEEN 26W-35W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 15N-18N AND WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT.
INVERTED-V SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS CURRENTLY OBSCURED
BY HIGH CLOUDS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 12N
TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA FROM 72W-75W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 9N22W 11N38W 13N52W 10N62W
ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN INTO THE E PACIFIC
REGION NEAR 10N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 75/90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 54W-60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE
AXIS FROM 35W-40W...FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 3W-20W...AND FROM 6N-12N
BETWEEN 46W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E US...THE N GULF N OF 27N AND
INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA JUST S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS ALONG
23N87W TO 22N94W THEN S INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE COAST
OF S MEXICO. VERY DRY AIR IS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N W OF 94W AND WITHIN 60
NM S OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. NARROW UPPER RIDGE COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF EXTENDING FROM TAMPICO MEXICO ACROSS
THE GULF AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE W CARIBBEAN S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
NEAR 17N82W COVERING THE AREA W OF 79W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM W CUBA NEAR 22N81W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR
15N87W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA
NEAR 12N83W TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. DRY AIR REMAINS TO THE W OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 81W-84W. BROAD UPPER HIGH
ANCHORED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND
AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA AND THE SOUTHERN
MOST WINDWARD ISLANDS REMAINS RATHER CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
ONLY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS DOTTING THE E CARIBBEAN E OF
70W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT IS OVER THE E US AND N GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 73W WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N72W SW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOST BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA JUST S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. VERY DRY AIR IS
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING
OVER THE W ATLC N OF 28N TO 80W.  SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SE OF THE FRONT TO
67W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A NARROWING
UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 19N68W WEDGED
BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH ABOVE AND THE UPPER LOWS IN THE
TROPICS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N63W
AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 24N60W-28N63W. A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS ARE
IN TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 20N29W 20N49W AND 21N60W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS BENEATH THE CENTER LOW FROM 20N47W TO
26N40W WITH ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 45W-52W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS
N OF THESE LOWS EXTENDING FROM 29N54W N TO BEYOND 32N52W. DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 26N FROM 24W-40W WITH
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N36W TO
29N45W. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC WITH
A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 22N32W AND A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 29N51W.

$$
WALLACE




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