[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240007
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON OCT 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.  A
SMALL LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER IS NOTED NEAR 12N32W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 26W-32W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN
31W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  LOW
LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER IS NOTED NEAR 13N55W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 54W-58W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT.  INVERTED
V PATTERN IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN
70W-73W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N22W 10N30W 11N40W 13N50W
9N61W.  BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-13N
BETWEEN 38W-45W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR TRINIDAD FROM
10N-12N BETWEEN 59W-62W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W
TO THE W GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 22N90W 23N92W.  A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 23N96W 19N96W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS.  20-25 KT NLY
SURFACE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONTS.  A MARK TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE FRONTS WITH SIGNIFICANT COOLING N OF THE
FRONTS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 27N.  WLY FLOW IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 27N.   EXPECT THE COLD
FRONT TO PUSH SE AND EXTEND FROM W CUBA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
BY TUESDAY EVENING.  EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE COAST OF NICARAGUA ALONG 19N82W
12N83W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN
82W-85W.  ELSEWHERE... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ON THE N COAST OF CUBA FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 75W-81W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
HONDURAS NEAR 17N82W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 10N BETWEEN
78W-90W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N HISPANIOLA NEAR
20N69W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 60W-78W.  EXPECT
MORE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 30N74W
26N80W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH THAT IS DELINEATED BY A WIND SHIFT IS ALONG
29N74W 23N83W.  FURTHER W...A 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
NEAR 26N65W.  A 1017 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
26N52W.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ALONG 25N42W 18N48W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH.  A 1017 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 23N32W.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... SW FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OFF THE NE
FLORIDA COAST N OF 26N BETWEEN 65W-80W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N
OF HISPANIOLA TO 26N BETWEEN 65W-78W.  A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED NEAR 23N60W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE
CENTER.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N49W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER.  A THIRD UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 21N30W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM
15N-25N BETWEEN 25W-37W.

$$
FORMOSA




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