[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231040
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON OCT 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. MID LEVEL
INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN
24W-30W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N44W SW TO 8N52W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THE 1011 MB LOW IS NO LONGER EVIDENT. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 17N-23N AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N13W 8N20W 10N30W 9N36W 13N52W
10N62W ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA...PANAMA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN
INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 11N85W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150/180 NM ALONG
THE COAST OF AFRICA S OF 7N W OF 3W...FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN
27W-48W...AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 53W-63W IN THE
CARIBBEAN.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E HALF OF THE US TO THE N
GULF COAST WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF
ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH INTO THE GULF JUST N OF TAMPA
TO 25N90W BECOMING STATIONARY INLAND OVER MEXICO BETWEEN TUXPAN
AND VERACRUZ THEN CONTINUING ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAINS. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N TO WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT W OF 91W.
THE UPPER LOW IN THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE SE GULF S OF 27N E
OF 88W. THE NARROWING UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF EXTENDING FROM MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR
TAMPA. THIS IS KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF DRY THIS
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N82W COVERING THE AREA
W OF 77W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING N ACROSS CUBA INTO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE IS A WEAKENING 1011 MB LOW
CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS NEAR 15N83W WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N TO W CUBA NEAR 22N81W. DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
90 NM OF THE LOW. BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED N OF PUERTO RICO
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER
COLOMBIA AND S OF 12N TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
REMAINS RATHER CLEAR AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED LOW
LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 13N E OF 73W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER LOW IN THE W CARIBBEAN N
ACROSS CUBA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NEAR 26N79W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE UPPER HIGH LOCATED N
OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N65W COVERING THE AREA FROM 57W-76W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE FAR W ATLC S OF 28N TO THE GREATER
ANTILLES BETWEEN 70W-80W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1011 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 25N64W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 62W-70W. A PAIR OF
UPPER LOWS ARE IN THE TROPICS CENTERED NEAR 20N34W AND 21N49W
WITH THE WESTERN MOST ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE. BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS N OF THESE LOWS EXTENDING
FROM 28N35W NE TO BEYOND 32N26W. AT THE SURFACE...AN ILL-DEFINED
RIDGE COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC FROM 20N-30N WITH A 1020 MB HIGH
NEAR 23N26W...A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 26N50W...AND A WEAKENING 1016
MB HIGH NEAR 32N62W. THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
AFRICAN DUST AGAIN ACROSS THE ATLC S OF 22N E OF 44W.

$$
WALLACE







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