[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON OCT 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE APPEARS TO BE ALONG 27W AND WILL BE ADDED AT 0600
UTC.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W S OF 22N WITH A WEAKENING 1011 MB
LOW ON THE WAVE NEAR 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE IS TILTED NE/SW. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
22N43W-17N50W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 8N33W 13N50W 10N62W ACROSS
SOUTH AMERICA AND PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA S OF 14N W OF 9W AND FROM 2N-12N
BETWEEN 25W-44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE AXIS FROM 51W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE US TO THE N GULF
COAST WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE COAST
OF GEORGIA CROSSING FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE INTO THE GULF
ALONG 26N90W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO JUST S OF TAMPICO CONTINUING
AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N TO THE FRONT W OF 90W. NARROW UPPER RIDGE
COVERS MOST OF THE GULF EXTENDING FROM MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ
ALONG 24N90W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR FORT MYERS. THIS IS KEEPING THE
MAJORITY OF THE GULF DRY TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N83W COVERING THE AREA
W OF 78W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING N ACROSS CUBA TO OVER
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. AT THE SURFACE IS A WEAKENING 1010
MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS NEAR
15N83W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N OVER W CUBA. WITH THE
DRY AIR IN PLACE...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEING GENERATED
ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA W OF 80W. BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED N OF
PUERTO RICO COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER
COLOMBIA FROM THE GULF OF VENEZUELA TO 76W DUE TO THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS
RATHER CLEAR TONIGHT WITH ONLY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER
THE NE N OF 15N E OF 70W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER LOW IN THE W CARIBBEAN N
ACROSS CUBA TO OVER ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THE REMAINDER
OF THE W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE UPPER HIGH LOCATED N OF PUERTO
RICO NEAR 20N66W COVERING THE AREA FROM 56W-76W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE FAR W ATLC S OF 28N TO THE GREATER ANTILLES
BETWEEN 70W-80W. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
29N60W THROUGH A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 26N64W TO 21N68W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 21N60W-
25N64W. A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS ARE NEAR THE TROPICS CENTERED NEAR
22N34W AND 22N50W WITH THE WESTERN MOST ENHANCING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS N OF
THESE LOWS EXTENDING FROM 27N38W N TO BEYOND 32N32W. AT THE
SURFACE...AN ILL-DEFINED RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH A SERIES OF
HIGHS...A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 24N28W...A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR
27N51W...AND A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 32N63W. THE LAST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AFRICAN DUST AGAIN ACROSS THE ATLC S OF
20N E OF THE WESTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE.

$$
WALLACE




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