[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 22N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  A 1010 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 14N49.5W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 50W-57W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 9N30W 9N40W 14N50W
10N60W.  PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN
10W-16W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 24W-30W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 50W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W
TO NE MEXICO NEAR 22N97W.  A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES W TO THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS.   SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS.  10-15 KT NLY SURFACE
WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONTS WHILE 10 KT ELY WINDS ARE S OF THE
FRONTS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE SE GULF OF MEXICO HAS NE
CYCLONIC FLOW S OF 25N AND E OF 87W.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
HAS SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
THE N GULF N OF 27N.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH SE AND
EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO BY MONDAY EVENING.  EXPECT
CONVECTION TO BE STRONGEST OVER THE W GULF S OF THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR
15N82W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N TO W CUBA NEAR 22N82W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF JAMAICA FROM 16N-19N
BETWEEN 77W-82W... AND OVER CUBA FROM 22N-23N BETWEEN 81W-83W.
ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ON THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 69W-73W.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST
OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N82W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 10N BETWEEN
78W-90W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N HISPANIOLA NEAR
20N70W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 60W-78W.  EXPECT
MORE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N64W.  A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N61W TO 20N68W WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 57W-64W.  A 1019 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N52W.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS
FURTHER E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 33N29W 27N39W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.  A 1019 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 24N27W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
SW FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST N OF
28N BETWEEN 75W-80W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE W BAHAMAS S OF
27N BETWEEN 78W-80W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF HISPANIOLA
BETWEEN 60W-78W.  A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
23N50W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER.  ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 21N34W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM
15N-28N BETWEEN 25W-43W.

$$
FORMOSA




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