[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221821
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN OCT 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25N44W 18N47W 9N49W
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM
17N TO 22N BETWEEN 42W AND 45W.

...THE ITCZ...
12N14W 10N20W 7N30W 7N40W 7N45W 6N60W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM
3N TO 12N BETWEEN 18W AND 56W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM
8N TO 15N BETWEEN 49W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
DRY STABLE AIR IS ALOFT. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRETCHES ACROSS THE AREA ORIGINATING FROM A HIGH CENTER IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A SURFACE COLD FRONT RUNS
THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO THE
DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS WITHIN 60 NM EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT FROM 27N TO 32N. A CHANGE IN AIRMASS
IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS
THE OPEN GULF WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES FELL
INTO THE 40'S AND 50'S BEHIND THE FRONT IN TEXAS AND NORTHERN
LOUISIANA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30'S EARLIER THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 70'S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF 30N85W
27N90W 24N95W 21N97W. THE FORECAST IS FOR THIS FRONT TO CLEAR
THE ENTIRE AREA LATE MONDAY BRINGING MODIFIED COOLER AND MUCH
DRIER AIR WITH IT. AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT.

FROM THE BAHAMAS AND PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH
OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA...AND
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH COVERS THE AREA FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N75W ACROSS
EASTERN CUBA TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 20N80W TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA COAST NEAR 12N83W...TO COSTA RICA
AND PANAMA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SURGING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM 28N60W TO A 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 24N64W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR
19N70W TO 15N80W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEST OF 75W SOUTH OF 20N.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN NOW IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 20N
BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N61W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N TO
26N BETWEEN 55W AND 74W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 30N77W BEYOND 34N72W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N57W
TO 30N62W. A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 34N57W
TO 33N60W. A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM 33N60W TO 31N65W
BEYOND 32N70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM 28N56W TO 31N51W
TO 32N43W TO 31N33W.  A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM
A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM 33N35W TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 30N36W...TO 28N37W 27N40W TO 30N51W. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM.
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 23N49W TO 16N53W. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR 22N35W TO 17N39W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 23N20W BEYOND 31N18W. A SURFACE 1019 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N52W. ANOTHER 1019 MB SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N27W.

$$
MT



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