[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170518
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE OCT 17 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W S OF 18N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
BROAD MID LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. CONVECTION IS BEING
DISPLACED TO THE E BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 25W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SHARP
LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF
RELATIVELY DRY AIR WITH ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W/91W IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND IN
THE E PACIFIC REGION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 9N26W 10N36W INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N59W ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION NEAR 10N84W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 17W-24W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-9N
BETWEEN 10W-37W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 37W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAIN
STATES TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM ARKANSAS ACROSS NW LOUISIANA TO A 998 MB LOW
ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI CONTINUING S ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST INTO MEXICO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE. A SQUALL LINE
IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 27N95W ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE N GULF N OF 27N
FROM 88W-95W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE
UPPER HIGH ANCHORED NEAR 23N90W AND EXTENDING OVER THE W ATLC
AND CARIBBEAN. REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS SHOWER FREE
TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS E
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO 67W DRYING OUT THE AREA EXCEPT SOME
REMAINING AFTERNOON SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED OVER CUBA AND HAITI.
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH A 1008 MB LOW REMAINS N OF
PUERTO RICO AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S ACROSS PUERTO RICO
TO 14N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE E
CARIBBEAN WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM THE ABC ISLANDS TO ACROSS
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE LARGE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS
THE W ATLC TO 67W DRYING OUT THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N60W S
ALONG 24N62W INTO THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH
THE ASSOCIATED WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR
32N54W EXTENDING S 27N57. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N61W
TO A 1008 MB LOW N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 225 NM E OF THE FRONT
AND THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SHARP UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR
16N56W N TO BEYOND 32N48W. NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE E ATLC THROUGH 32N23W SW TO NEAR 18N47W. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1020 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 31N40W WITH A RIDGE
COVERING THE AREA N OF 20N FROM 25W-50W. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE
E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N22W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N TO THE
CANARY ISLANDS DISPLACING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 34W/35W.

$$
WALLACE




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