[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON OCT 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W S OF 18N MOVING W 5 TO 10 KT.
CYCLONIC TURNING REMAINS EVIDENT IN THE LOW TO MID CLOUD FIELD
FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 29W-37W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITHIN 100NM OF THE AXIS...WITH MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED
HIGH CLOUDS BEING DISPLACED NE/E OF THE AXIS WITH WSW SHEAR OVER
THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN THE MIDST OF ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH NEAR 32N40W. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 59W-63W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.  THERE
MAY BE A HINT OF CYCLONIC TURNING SOUTH OF GUATEMALA BUT IT IS
EASIER TO LOCATE THE WAVE FROM A GOES12 HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM.
CONVECTION WITHIN 2O0NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS IS MINIMAL
THOUGH ONE SMALL PATCH OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR
11N90W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 9N25W 10N35W 6N50W 7N60W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS AFFECTING THE
WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS FROM 8N-13N
BETWEEN 12W-17W. MUCH SMALLER PATCHES OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION SEEN FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN
17W-21W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN
23W-30W. MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 200NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 40W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 87W-94W. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 1027MB HIGH NEAR THE
NEW JERSEY COAST WITH THE 995MB LOW IN SW ARKANSAS. AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDS ESE FROM THE LOW TO THE GULF
COASTAL REGION AND INTO THE FAR NRN GULF WATERS S OF THE FL
PANHANDLE...BUT RECENT DATA SUGGESTS THIS IS NOW NORTH OF THE
AREA. MEANWHILE...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE
TEXAS COAST FROM THE NW. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS AFFECTING THE FAR NW
GULF/COASTAL TEXAS AND EXTENDS NE THROUGH LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO RELAX INTO TOMORROW WITH
MUCH OF THE ENERGY LIFTING NORTH. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES AROUND AN UPPER HIGH
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN NEAR 22N87W. THIS IS HELPING
TO SPREAD SOME OF THE THE MID TO UPPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN TO THE NE INTO THE
SW GULF W OF 95W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SAME UPPER HIGH DOMINATING THE GULF IS DOMINATING THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. THIS REGION ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY
MID TO UPPER AIR AND FAIR WEATHER. THE WRN CARIBBEAN SFC PATTERN
IS DOMINATED BY 10-20 KT SE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH EXTENDING S
FROM NEW JERSEY. THESE WINDS EXPECTED TO RELAX THROUGH TOMORROW.
AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS S FROM THE ATLC AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF PUERTO
RICO/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG 15N71W TO THE 1008MB SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 100NM OF THIS TROUGH HAVE BEEN
DIMINISHING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. THE SURFACE LOW N OF PUERTO RICO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH 24HRS...SO ASSOCIATED TROUGHING MAY
CONTINUE TO SPARK OCC. SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VICINITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER HIGH JUST N OF THE
YUCATAN DOMINATES THE SW NORTH ATLC. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
10-20KT E/ESE FLOW ALSO UNDER CONTROL HERE...S OF THE 1027MB
CENTER NEAR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS S THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 55W-67W...WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ALONG 32N55W 27N58W THAT EXTENDS SSE AS A SURFACE
TROUGH THROUGH THE 1008MB LOW JUST N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W.
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONT/TROUGH IS OVERALL MINIMAL ASIDE
FROM A NEW CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 59W-62W. THE TROUGH/LOW N OF
PUERTO RICO EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH 24HRS
WHILE THE COLD FRONT LIFTS NE. MID TO UPPER TROUGHING IS
DOMINATING THE ERN ATLC N OF 15N BETWEEN 20W-48W...INTERACTING
WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 12N16W. THIS IS
PRODUCING WSW SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 33W. ERN ATLC
ALSO DOMINATED BY A 1022MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 32N40W...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY S THROUGH TOMORROW.

$$
WILLIS




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