[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON OCT 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 18N MOVING W AT 10 KT. LOW LEVEL
INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOW NOTED BENEATH HIGH CLOUDS.
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 26W-33W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN
60W-63W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR WITH A FAINT INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE AND NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 9N20W 12N33W 6N50W 7N60W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-14N
BETWEEN 21W-27W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N
BETWEEN 31W-37W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
5N-9N BETWEEN 41W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE ALONG 22N80W 26N86W 30N88W.  A WARM FRONT CONTINUES
INLAND OVER THE N GULF STATES.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM E TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM
30N-34N BETWEEN 87W-96W DUE TO THE WARM FRONT.  A GALE IS OVER
THE NW GULF N OF 27N BETWEEN 87W-95W DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STRONG SLY FLOW.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 23N86W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE E OF 90W.  EXPECT BY TUE MORNING FOR A COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST AND SLY SURFACE FLOW BE THROUGHOUT THE
GULF OF MEXICO. GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE NW GULF WILL END BY
MONDAY EVENING.  THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL ALSO DISSIPATE BY
MONDAY EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING
INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SEA AND IS PRODUCING CONVECTION W OF THE
WAVE AXIS.  SEE ABOVE.  A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO
RICO NEAR 19N66W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N72W.  THE LOW IS IN A VERY HOSTILE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG NWLY SHEAR.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH
TO INCLUDE PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.  THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 72W IS VOID OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... NELY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 10N.  A TINY UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AT 19N64W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER.  EXPECT MORE
CONVECTION OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N56W TO 28N60W.  A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO E CUBA NEAR 21N75W.  A
WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FURTHER TO CENTRAL CUBA
NEAR 22N80W.  A 1009 MB LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO...SEE ABOVE.
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N59W 27N64W 21N67W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN
57W-63W.  A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
31N38W.  A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N17W 30N25W
32N31W.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF FRONT.  SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM
5N-20N E 52W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 60W.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-68W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN
50W-60W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
20N43W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN 20W-50W.

$$
FORMOSA




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