[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W S OF 17N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN
24W-30W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 23N MOVING W 15 KT.  LOW LEVEL
INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME RATHER DRY AIR AND IS GENERATING NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 9N20W 9N50W 10N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM
5N-10N BETWEEN 9W-13W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
3N-7N BETWEEN 21W-25W...FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 32W-37W...AND FROM
8N-10N BETWEEN 40W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG 22N80W 25N88W.  A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO THE
LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 30N94W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 88W-96W.  A 1000 MB
LOW IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N96W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN
93W-97W.  A GALE IS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 27N BETWEEN 89W-94W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... MOSTLY WLY FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.  EXPECT BY MONDAY EVENING FOR
A WARM FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WITH CONVECTION.  ALSO EXPECT SLY SURFACE FLOW THROUGHOUT THE
GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY EVENING...WITH GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE NW
GULF ENDING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.  SEE ABOVE.  A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO
RICO NEAR 21N67W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N75W.  THE LOW IS IN A VERY HOSTILE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG NWLY SHEAR.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 64W-70W TO
INCLUDE PUERTO RICO.  THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS VOID
OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... NELY FLOW
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA N OF 10N.  A NEAR 10N72W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 180
NM OF THE CENTER.  EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N64W 24N75W 22N80W.
A 1008 MB LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO...SEE ABOVE.  ANOTHER 1009 MB
LOW IS FURTHER NE NEAR 27N64W.  A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N59W
27N64W 21N67W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH
FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN 57W-63W.  A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N41W.  A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N15W 27N20W 25N35W.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF FRONT.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF
AFRICAN DUST OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 5N-20N E 50W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W.  AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
60W-68W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W.  A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 20N43W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS
FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN 20W-50W.

$$
FORMOSA







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