[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN OCT 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W S OF 17N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. HEAVIEST
CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 21W-32W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 23N MOVING W 15 KT. SHARP LOW
LEVEL WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN
AREA OF RATHER DRY AIR WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME RATHER DRY AIR AND IS GENERATING
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 9N26W 8N35W 10N50W 11N60W
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN
24W-35W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND JUST NORTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS
BETWEEN 37W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N96W. THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS
E ALONG 19N/20N GIVING THE GULF MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THIS
IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. AS OF
1500 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE GULF THROUGH
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 23N81W THEN CONTINUES WNW TO 25N90W.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS POINT TO SOUTH TEXAS. A 1005 MB
BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO
JUST NORTH OF TAMPICO. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 22N-29N WEST OF 92W. DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
AND PROXIMITY TO LAND...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT
APPEAR LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS LOW AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SE TO S WINDS OF 20-30 KT WILL ALSO BLOW
ACROSS THE GULF...PARTICULARLY WEST OF 88W. GALE CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT...DECREASING BY MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE S GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS E
ALONG 19N/20N OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN DRYING OUT THE ENTIRE
BASIN. AN UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS. WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC FROM 26N55W TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH TWO EMBEDDED LOW CENTERS ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE. ONE OF THESE LOWS REMAINS NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N67W. THE TROUGH/LOW ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E PORTION OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND THE COASTAL WATERS...INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ON
MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD EXTENDS INTO THE W
ATLC N OF 26N W OF 62W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION NEAR 31N64W THEN CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY. THE
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ALONG 19N/20N TO 70W. A 1008 MB LOW IS N
OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N67W. ANOTHER LOW OF 1009 MB IS DEVELOPING
FARTHER NORTH NEAR 25N65W. THESE LOWS ARE EMBEDDED IN A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT RUNS FROM 29N65W TO 15N71W. A DIFFLUENCE
PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION JUST EAST OF THIS SURFACE
TROUGH. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N22W SW TO AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR
21N40W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 31N18W
EXTENDING SW TO 25N35. A NARROW BAND OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS IS RELATED TO THE FRONT. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH THE LEADING
EDGE REACHING 47W.

$$
GR




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