[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151030
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN OCT 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W S OF 17N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
BROAD MID LEVEL WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. HEAVIEST
CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 21W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 23N MOVING W 15 KT. SHARP LOW
LEVEL WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN
AREA OF RATHER DRY AIR WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
13N50.5W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME RATHER DRY AIR WITH THE WAVE
POSITION BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM
13N-20N BETWEEN 79W-83W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N13W 9N20W 7N34W 10N52W 11N60W
9N64W ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA AND PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN
24W-30W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-12N E OF 37W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GULF IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER NE US AND INTO THE W ATLC
ENTERING THE GULF THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W W
TO OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 25N94W. ALSO AT THE UPPER
LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N96W EXTENDING E
ALONG 19N/20N GIVING THE GULF MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THIS
IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE W GULF W OF 88W.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 60/75 NM RADIUS
OF 23N95.5W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION S OF 27N W OF 93W. ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE COVERS THE
ALL OF THE GULF THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF SHOWERS E OF 88W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE S GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS E
ALONG 19N/20N OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN DRYING OUT THE ENTIRE
AREA. AN UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA COVERING THE S
CARIBBEAN S OF 12N FROM 70W-81W. WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC FROM 21N62W OVER THE FAR E
CARIBBEAN TO JUST N OF THE ABC ISLANDS. A 1007 MB LOW IS N OF
PUERTO RICO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N FROM 64W-73W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E US EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF
26N W OF 62W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION
NEAR 32N67W EXTENDING SW TO 27N73W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY
ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ALONG
19N/20N TO 70W DRYING OUT THE AREA. A 1007 MB LOW IS N OF PUERTO
RICO NEAR 20N67W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 60W-68W. A SHARP UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
NEAR 22N58W N TO BEYOND 32N49W PROVIDING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO
GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 22N65W TO BEYOND 32N59W.
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N18W SW ALONG 26N26W TO AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 20N42W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 41W-48W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N17W EXTENDING SW TO 26N26W
DISSIPATING TO 26N35W. DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...NO SHOWERS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IN THE REGION.

$$
WALLACE





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