[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI OCT 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
A 1009 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N.  CONVECTION IS
CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 36W-43W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THIS WAVE LEFT BEHIND A 1008 MB LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY NEAR
22N66W OR A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT.  LINES OF LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW ARE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS S OF HISPANIOLA.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING W 10-15
KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE.  NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 9N30W 10N39W 7N50W 9N60W.
OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
W AFRICA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 13W-16W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 17W-19W...FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN
28W-30W...AND FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 48W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO S TEXAS ALONG
29N80W 28N90W 26N97W 27N100W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 90W-100W.  A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ALONG 24N80W
25N87W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... MOSTLY WLY FLOW IS OVER THE
GULF.  A 110 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER TEXAS AND THE N GULF STATES
ALONG 31N BETWEEN 100W-80W.  EXPECT THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S
FLORIDA TO S TEXAS BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  SEE ABOVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER NW VENEZUELA AND N
COLOMBIA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 69W-70W...AND FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN
73W-75W MOSTLY DUE TO THE ITCZ.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 77W-83W
ALSO DUE TO THE ITCZ.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 60W-64W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... NELY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 10N AND W OF 73W.  A
SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF VENEZUELA NEAR 13N68W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER.  EXPECT MORE
CONVECTION OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA ALONG 32N76W 29N80W.  A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 29N70W 25N75W
24N80W.  A 1008 MB LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N66W.  A COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N27W 29N37W 32N47W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM E OF 33W.  A 1019
MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N16W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W.  A TROUGH IS
N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-70W.  ANOTHER RIDGE IS BETWEEN 50W-60W.  A
BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N AND E OF 50W.

$$
FORMOSA




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