[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 110529
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED OCT 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W S OF 18N MOVING W 10 KT. LOW/MID
LEVEL SWIRL NEAR 12N IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY HOWEVER THE
WAVE IS UNDERGOING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF WESTERLY SHEAR.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N-15N
BETWEEN 30W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 24N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF
THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-15N BETWEEN 56W-62W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. BROAD LOW
LEVEL INVERTED-V STRUCTURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-19N
BETWEEN 68W-73W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N13W 9N19W 10N30W 9N43W 13N57W
BECOMING ILL-DEFINED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO REDEFINE OVER
COLOMBIA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS PANAMA NEAR 9N82W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N
BETWEEN 52W-59W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-13N
E OF 30W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 51W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS INLAND BUT A SQUALL LINE HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OF
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS EXTENDING ACROSS THE NW GULF WITH
ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N W OF 88W. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC ALONG THE W COAST OF
MEXICO COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE...A
REMNANT FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W W TO 23N92W BUT WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE
NO SHOWERS ARE INDICATED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
EAST/WEST UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE SW CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR
11N82W S OF 16N W OF 70W. UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS S
ACROSS CUBA/HAITI TO 16N BETWEEN 71W-80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 14N W OF 80W. BROAD RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS COVERING THE CENTRAL ATLC INCLUDES THE E
CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE S OF 11N FROM 73W-80W DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF THE ITCZ AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS CLEAR
EXCEPT THE ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER
LOW N OF THE REGION THROUGH 32N71W S ACROSS CUBA/HAITI NEAR
21N77W WITH A REMNANT FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
31N71W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N76W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
NEAR 24N80W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH N OF 18N BETWEEN
64W-73W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED
IN THE TROPICS NEAR 12N46W WITH THE MEAN AXIS ALONG 45W COVERING
THE AREA FROM 30W-65W WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG
22N54W TO 30N55W. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN
47W-64W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N16W SW TO NEAR 16N33W THUS COVERING THE E
ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION THROUGH
32N24W SW TO 29N32W THEN NW OUT OF THE REGION AS A STATIONARY
FRONT NEAR 32N35W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 32W/33W AND DUE TO
THE DRY AIR OVER THE AREA NO OTHER SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED.
ALSO AT THE SURFACE IS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC E
OF 65W WITH A 1022 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 28N46W.

$$
WALLACE


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